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Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1Hawai'i over Nevada
543 · on the road · 2019-09-29
+2+53.045%
2Syracuse over Duke
496 · on the road · 2019-11-16
+9+52.029%
3Kansas over Boston College
4824 · on the road · 2019-09-13
+20.2+44.210%
4Bowling Green over Toledo
207 · at home · 2019-10-12
+27+40.05%
5UNLV over Vanderbilt
3410 · on the road · 2019-10-12
+15.5+39.517%
6Central Michigan over Northern Illinois
4810 · at home · 2019-11-02
+1.5+39.546%
7Duke over Virginia Tech
4510 · on the road · 2019-09-27
+2.5+37.544%
8#10Texas over #14Utah
3810 · neutral site · 2020-01-01
+7+35.033%
9Middle Tennessee over Florida International
5017 · at home · 2019-10-26
+1+34.048%
10Boston College over Syracuse
5827 · on the road · 2019-11-02
+3+34.043%
11Georgia State over Tennessee
3830 · on the road · 2019-08-31
+24.5+32.56%
12Southern Illinois over Massachusetts
4520 · on the road · 2019-09-07
+6.5+31.534%
13Kentucky over Missouri
297 · at home · 2019-10-26
+9.5+31.528%
14Eastern Michigan over Northern Illinois
4517 · on the road · 2019-11-20
+3.5+31.541%
15Illinois over #6Wisconsin
2423 · at home · 2019-10-19
+30.2+31.23%
16BYU over Utah State
4214 · on the road · 2019-11-03
+3+31.043%
17Florida Atlantic over SMU
5228 · at home · 2019-12-21
+7+31.033%
18Kansas State over #5Oklahoma
4841 · at home · 2019-10-26
+23.5+30.57%
19Purdue over Maryland
4014 · at home · 2019-10-12
+4.2+30.240%
20Central Michigan over Eastern Michigan
4216 · at home · 2019-10-05
+4+30.040%
21Buffalo over Temple
3822 · at home · 2019-09-21
+13.8+29.820%
22Houston over North Texas
4625 · on the road · 2019-09-29
+8+29.031%
23Navy over Tulsa
4517 · on the road · 2019-10-12
+1+29.048%
24The Citadel over Georgia Tech
2724 · on the road · 2019-09-14
+25.5+28.56%
25#13Oregon over #5Utah
3715 · neutral site · 2019-12-07
+6.5+28.534%
26Vanderbilt over #22Missouri
2114 · at home · 2019-10-19
+21+28.09%
27Illinois over Purdue
246 · on the road · 2019-10-26
+9.5+27.528%
28Western Kentucky over Arkansas
4519 · on the road · 2019-11-09
+1+27.048%
29Florida International over Miami
3024 · at home · 2019-11-24
+21+27.09%
30San José State over Arkansas
3124 · on the road · 2019-09-21
+19.8+26.811%
31#20Iowa over USC
4924 · neutral site · 2019-12-28
+1+26.048%
32Georgia Tech over Miami
2821 · on the road · 2019-10-19
+18.5+25.512%
33Boston College over NC State
4524 · at home · 2019-10-19
+4+25.040%
34Northwestern over Illinois
2910 · on the road · 2019-11-30
+6+25.035%
35Tennessee over South Carolina
4121 · at home · 2019-10-26
+4.2+24.240%
36West Virginia over NC State
4427 · at home · 2019-09-14
+7+24.033%
37#18Baylor over Oklahoma State
4527 · on the road · 2019-10-19
+6+24.035%
38Liberty over Buffalo
3517 · at home · 2019-09-14
+5.8+23.836%
39South Carolina over #3Georgia
2017 · on the road · 2019-10-12
+20.8+23.810%
40Colorado State over Fresno State
4131 · on the road · 2019-10-26
+13.8+23.820%
41Louisiana over Ohio
4525 · on the road · 2019-09-21
+3+23.043%
42Troy over Georgia Southern
4928 · at home · 2019-11-09
+2+23.045%
43Wyoming over Missouri
3731 · at home · 2019-08-31
+16.8+22.815%
44Stanford over #15Washington
2313 · at home · 2019-10-06
+12.8+22.821%
45UCLA over #19Washington State
6763 · on the road · 2019-09-22
+18.5+22.512%
46Oregon State over Arizona
5638 · on the road · 2019-11-02
+4.5+22.539%
47UCLA over Stanford
3416 · on the road · 2019-10-18
+4.2+22.240%
48Oregon State over UCLA
4831 · on the road · 2019-10-06
+4.5+21.539%
49Virginia Tech over #22Wake Forest
3617 · at home · 2019-11-09
+2.5+21.544%
50California over Washington State
3320 · at home · 2019-11-10
+8.5+21.530%
51Western Kentucky over Southern Miss
2810 · on the road · 2019-11-23
+3.5+21.541%
52Virginia Tech over Miami
4235 · on the road · 2019-10-05
+14+21.019%
53Nevada over #24San Diego State
1713 · on the road · 2019-11-10
+17+21.014%
54Louisiana Tech over Miami
140 · neutral site · 2019-12-26
+7+21.033%
55Georgia State over Arkansas State
5238 · at home · 2019-10-05
+6.5+20.534%
56Miami over Florida State
2710 · on the road · 2019-11-02
+3+20.043%
57Colorado over Washington
2014 · at home · 2019-11-24
+14+20.019%
58Nevada over Fresno State
3528 · on the road · 2019-11-24
+13+20.021%
59Tulsa over UCF
3431 · at home · 2019-11-09
+16.5+19.515%
60Texas Tech over #21Oklahoma State
4535 · at home · 2019-10-05
+9.5+19.528%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.