UCLA vs. Stanford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCLATeam statsSTAN
- Q4 2:50STANCameron Scarlett 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–16
- Q4 6:55UCLAJoshua Kelley 54 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)34–10
- Q3 3:12UCLAJJ Molson 49 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 11:02UCLAJJ Molson 43 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 5:31UCLADorian Thompson-Robinson 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)21–10
- Q1 1:29STANBrycen Tremayne 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Sanborn Kick)14–10
- Q1 4:48UCLAKyle Philips 3 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)14–3
- Q1 8:16UCLAKyle Philips 19 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:45STANJet Toner 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDorian Thompson-Robinson 21/34, 192 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJoshua Kelley 18 CAR, 176 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKyle Philips 10 REC, 100 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJack West 15/32, 143 YDS
- RushCameron Scarlett 13 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD
- RecConnor Wedington 3 REC, 48 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCLA up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:31UCLA +23%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q1 1:29STAN +19%
TEAM punt blocked by Spencer Jorgensen blocked by Spencer Jorgensen for a TD, (Ryan Sanborn KICK)
- Q1 4:48UCLA +19%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 3 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q1 8:16UCLA +15%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 19 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q3 11:02UCLA +10%
JJ Molson 43 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 11:44UCLA +9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of UCLA vs. Stanford?
UCLA 34, Stanford 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked STAN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCLA | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 455 | Total yards | 198 |
| 192 | Passing yards | 143 |
| 263 | Rushing yards | 55 |
| 20 | First downs | 11 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 21/34 | Comp/Att | 15/32 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-72 | Penalties | 3-14 |
| 31:40 | Possession | 28:20 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:45 STAN field goal on 4th & 1 at UCLA 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:50STANCameron Scarlett 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–16
- Q4 6:55UCLAJoshua Kelley 54 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)34–10
- Q3 3:12UCLAJJ Molson 49 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 11:02UCLAJJ Molson 43 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 5:31UCLADorian Thompson-Robinson 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)21–10
- Q1 1:29STANBrycen Tremayne 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Sanborn Kick)14–10
- Q1 4:48UCLAKyle Philips 3 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)14–3
- Q1 8:16UCLAKyle Philips 19 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:45STANJet Toner 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (STAN Elo 1578, UCLA Elo 1344 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects STAN -11.8 (79% to win) — 7.3 points clear of STAN's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #80 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →UCLA leads 49–43–3 · UCLA has won 3 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| UCLA | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.3 (#102) | CORE overall | -6.0 (#87) |
| -1 / +9 | offense / defense | -2 / +4 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 1.91 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 2.80 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →