Georgia State vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsTENN
- Q4 0:02TENNJauan Jennings 18 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)38–30
- Q4 2:37GASTBrandon Wright 48 Yd Field Goal 38–23
- Q4 4:45GASTDan Ellington 22 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)35–23
- Q4 8:56GASTTra Barnett 19 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)28–23
- Q4 12:05TENNBrent Cimaglia 31 Yd Field Goal 21–23
- Q3 3:32TENNBrent Cimaglia 48 Yd Field Goal 21–20
- Q3 10:30GASTAubry Payne 6 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:00TENNBrent Cimaglia 19 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 3:11GASTCornelius McCoy 17 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:09TENNTy Chandler 31 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:13TENNMarquez Callaway 6 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:00GASTSeth Paige 4 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDan Ellington 11/24, 139 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTra Barnett 21 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCornelius McCoy 3 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJarrett Guarantano 26/40, 311 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTy Chandler 6 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJauan Jennings 7 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:56GAST +43%
Tra Barnett run for 19 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
- Q3 10:30GAST +27%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Aubry Payne for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
- Q2 3:11GAST +20%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 17 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
- Q4 7:10GAST +18%
Ellington, Dan pass incomplete to Pinckney, Sam (Taylor,A.), PENALTY UT 12 men on the field 4 yards to the UT30, NO PLAY
- Q1 12:00GAST +18%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
- Q1 4:13TENN +17%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 6 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Tennessee?
Georgia State 38, Tennessee 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GAST | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 352 | Total yards | 404 |
| 139 | Passing yards | 311 |
| 213 | Rushing yards | 93 |
| 24 | First downs | 21 |
| 10-17 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 11/24 | Comp/Att | 26/40 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-31 | Penalties | 3-24 |
| 30:34 | Possession | 29:26 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:51 TENN punt on 4th & 1 at TENN 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:02TENNJauan Jennings 18 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)38–30
- Q4 2:37GASTBrandon Wright 48 Yd Field Goal 38–23
- Q4 4:45GASTDan Ellington 22 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)35–23
- Q4 8:56GASTTra Barnett 19 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)28–23
- Q4 12:05TENNBrent Cimaglia 31 Yd Field Goal 21–23
- Q3 3:32TENNBrent Cimaglia 48 Yd Field Goal 21–20
- Q3 10:30GASTAubry Payne 6 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:00TENNBrent Cimaglia 19 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 3:11GASTCornelius McCoy 17 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:09TENNTy Chandler 31 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:13TENNMarquez Callaway 6 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:00GASTSeth Paige 4 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1399, GAST Elo 1265 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TENN -7.8 (71% to win) — 17.2 points clear of GAST's market line of -25. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#11 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #4 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| GAST | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#99) | CORE overall | +6.5 (#38) |
| +2 / +12 | offense / defense | -1 / -8 |
| 2.49 | points / drive | 2.01 |
| 2.99 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →