Washington vs. Stanford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WASHTeam statsSTAN
- Q4 8:04STANJet Toner 36 Yd Field Goal 13–23
- Q3 3:16WASHPeyton Henry 38 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q3 6:02STANCameron Scarlett 4 Yd Run (Jet Toner Kick)10–20
- Q2 5:59WASHPeyton Henry 25 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 10:00STANSimi Fehoko 42 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Jet Toner Kick)7–13
- Q2 12:58STANJet Toner 20 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 4:31WASHCade Otton 3 Yd pass from Jacob Eason (Peyton Henry Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:51STANJet Toner 20 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJacob Eason 16/36, 206 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRichard Newton 10 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecAaron Fuller 9 REC, 171 YDS
- PassDavis Mills 21/30, 293 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCameron Scarlett 33 CAR, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSimi Fehoko 3 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSTAN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:02STAN +26%
Cameron Scarlett 4 Yd Run (Jet Toner Kick)
- Q4 8:04STAN +23%
Jet Toner 36 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 10:00STAN +21%
Simi Fehoko 42 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Jet Toner Kick)
- Q3 0:00STAN +15%
Davis Mills pass complete to Dorian Maddox for 1 yd to the Stanf 48 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Stanf 42
- Q1 4:31WASH +15%
Cade Otton 3 Yd pass from Jacob Eason (Peyton Henry Kick)
- Q3 3:16WASH +11%
Peyton Henry 38 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. Stanford?
Washington 13, Stanford 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WASH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WASH | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 294 | Total yards | 482 |
| 206 | Passing yards | 293 |
| 88 | Rushing yards | 189 |
| 15 | First downs | 24 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/36 | Comp/Att | 21/31 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-34 | Penalties | 9-70 |
| 20:59 | Possession | 39:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:58 STAN field goal on 4th & 2 at WASH 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:04STANJet Toner 36 Yd Field Goal 13–23
- Q3 3:16WASHPeyton Henry 38 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q3 6:02STANCameron Scarlett 4 Yd Run (Jet Toner Kick)10–20
- Q2 5:59WASHPeyton Henry 25 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 10:00STANSimi Fehoko 42 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Jet Toner Kick)7–13
- Q2 12:58STANJet Toner 20 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 4:31WASHCade Otton 3 Yd pass from Jacob Eason (Peyton Henry Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:51STANJet Toner 20 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (STAN Elo 1539, WASH Elo 1822 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects STAN +8.9 (29% to win) — 4.6 points clear of STAN's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#44 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #30 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds · #9 of 51 in 2019 by biggest poll gap.
The 2019 upset archive →Washington leads 46–43–4 · Washington has won 3 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| WASH | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.0 (#34) | CORE overall | -6.0 (#87) |
| -1 / -10 | offense / defense | -2 / +4 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 1.91 |
| 1.45 | allowed / drive | 2.80 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →