Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsVT
- Q4 4:38VTHendon Hooker 7 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)17–36
- Q4 11:44VTJames Mitchell 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–29
- Q3 5:30VTBrian Johnson 35 Yd Field Goal 17–23
- Q3 7:02VTDeshawn McClease 6 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)17–20
- Q3 8:59WAKESage Surratt 24 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)17–13
- Q3 11:00VTDeshawn McClease 2 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)10–13
- Q2 5:48WAKESage Surratt 11 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)10–6
- Q2 7:47VTBrian Johnson 32 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 2:23WAKENick Sciba 40 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:33VTBrian Johnson 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJamie Newman 16/35, 238 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushCade Carney 10 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecKendall Hinton 8 REC, 162 YDS
- PassHendon Hooker 15/23, 242 YDS
- RushTre Turner 4 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecDamon Hazelton 7 REC, 86 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVT up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:02VT +34%
Deshawn McClease run for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
- Q4 11:44VT +29%
James Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q3 11:00VT +26%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
- Q3 8:59WAKE +25%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 24 yds for a TD VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q2 5:48WAKE +22%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 11 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q3 5:30VT +21%
Brian Johnson 35 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech?
Wake Forest 17, Virginia Tech 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WAKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WAKE | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 301 | Total yards | 470 |
| 238 | Passing yards | 242 |
| 63 | Rushing yards | 228 |
| 16 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 16/36 | Comp/Att | 15/23 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-30 | Penalties | 7-55 |
| 23:51 | Possession | 36:09 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:38 VT punt on 4th & 1 at VT 35. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.77 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:38VTHendon Hooker 7 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)17–36
- Q4 11:44VTJames Mitchell 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–29
- Q3 5:30VTBrian Johnson 35 Yd Field Goal 17–23
- Q3 7:02VTDeshawn McClease 6 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)17–20
- Q3 8:59WAKESage Surratt 24 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)17–13
- Q3 11:00VTDeshawn McClease 2 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)10–13
- Q2 5:48WAKESage Surratt 11 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)10–6
- Q2 7:47VTBrian Johnson 32 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 2:23WAKENick Sciba 40 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:33VTBrian Johnson 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1457, WAKE Elo 1652 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT +5.4 (37% to win) — 2.9 points clear of WAKE's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#49 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #96 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds · #30 of 51 in 2019 by biggest poll gap.
The 2019 upset archive →Virginia Tech leads 26–14–1 · 32% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.8 (#85) | CORE overall | +5.4 (#43) |
| -4 / +2 | offense / defense | +2 / -4 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.40 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 1.89 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →