Virginia Tech vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsMIA
- Q4 1:03VTDeshawn McClease 3 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)42–35
- Q4 3:16MIADeeJay Dallas 62 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa PAT failed)35–35
- Q4 4:55MIAJeff Thomas 25 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (DeeJay Dallas Run for Two-Point Conversion)35–29
- Q4 7:03MIAJeff Thomas 13 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)35–21
- Q4 12:43VTDalton Keene 5 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)35–14
- Q3 9:38MIABrevin Jordan 6 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)28–14
- Q2 0:00MIAMark Pope 38 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)28–7
- Q2 9:30VTDalton Keene 17 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)28–0
- Q1 2:16VTJames Mitchell 1 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:19VTDalton Keene 20 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:48VTHendon Hooker 12 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 6.5
- VT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassHendon Hooker 10/20, 184 YDS, 3 TD
- RushHendon Hooker 16 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJames Mitchell 3 REC, 75 YDS
- PassN'Kosi Perry 28/47, 422 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeeJay Dallas 6 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrevin Jordan 7 REC, 136 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:16MIA +55%
DeeJay Dallas run for 62 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa PAT MISSED)
- Q4 2:00VT +37%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 33
- Q4 1:03VT +29%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
- Q1 3:19VT +21%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dalton Keene for 20 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
- Q4 4:55MIA +20%
Jeff Thomas 25 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (DeeJay Dallas Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q1 9:48VT +18%
Hendon Hooker run for 12 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Miami?
Virginia Tech 42, Miami 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VT | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 563 |
| 184 | Passing yards | 469 |
| 153 | Rushing yards | 94 |
| 17 | First downs | 27 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 10/20 | Comp/Att | 32/55 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 11-90 |
| 28:45 | Possession | 31:15 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:11 VT punt on 4th & 1 at VT 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:03VTDeshawn McClease 3 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)42–35
- Q4 3:16MIADeeJay Dallas 62 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa PAT failed)35–35
- Q4 4:55MIAJeff Thomas 25 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (DeeJay Dallas Run for Two-Point Conversion)35–29
- Q4 7:03MIAJeff Thomas 13 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)35–21
- Q4 12:43VTDalton Keene 5 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)35–14
- Q3 9:38MIABrevin Jordan 6 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)28–14
- Q2 0:00MIAMark Pope 38 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)28–7
- Q2 9:30VTDalton Keene 17 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)28–0
- Q1 2:16VTJames Mitchell 1 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:19VTDalton Keene 20 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:48VTHendon Hooker 12 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1592, VT Elo 1418 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -9.4 (74% to win) — 4.6 points clear of VT's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#52 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #19 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Miami leads 27–15 · Miami has won 5 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| VT | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.4 (#43) | CORE overall | +8.7 (#35) |
| +2 / -4 | offense / defense | -2 / -11 |
| 2.40 | points / drive | 1.94 |
| 1.89 | allowed / drive | 1.78 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →