Missouri vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsWYO
- Q4 6:19MIZJonathan Nance 53 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Tucker McCann Kick)31–37
- Q4 7:01WYOCooper Rothe 20 Yd Field Goal 24–37
- Q4 13:29MIZTyler Badie 1 Yd Run (Tucker McCann Kick)24–34
- Q3 4:21WYOTrey Smith 1 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)17–34
- Q2 0:00WYOCooper Rothe 23 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q2 1:58WYOSean Chambers 75 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)17–24
- Q2 2:11MIZTucker McCann 22 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 6:15WYOXazavian Valladay 61 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)14–17
- Q2 7:54WYOC.J. Coldon 30 Yd Fumble Return (Cooper Rothe Kick)14–10
- Q2 9:09WYOCooper Rothe 19 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 3:19MIZLarry Rountree III 2 Yd Run (Tucker McCann Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:04MIZJonathan Nance 3 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Tucker McCann Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WYO lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassKelly Bryant 31/48, 423 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTyler Badie 16 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAlbert Okwuegbunam Jr. 3 REC, 72 YDS
- PassSean Chambers 6/16, 92 YDS
- RushSean Chambers 12 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRaghib Ismail Jr. 2 REC, 42 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWYO up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:58WYO +29%
Sean Chambers run for 75 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
- Q2 6:15WYO +24%
Xazavian Valladay run for 61 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
- Q4 6:19MIZ +21%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 53 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
- Q3 4:21WYO +18%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
- Q2 0:00WYO +15%
Cooper Rothe 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 6:19WYO +15%
Titus Swen run for 8 yds to the Wyom 43
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Wyoming?
Missouri 31, Wyoming 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIZ | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 537 | Total yards | 389 |
| 423 | Passing yards | 92 |
| 114 | Rushing yards | 297 |
| 28 | First downs | 16 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 31/48 | Comp/Att | 6/16 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-31 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 31:10 | Possession | 28:50 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:09 WYO field goal on 4th & 2 at MIZ 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:19MIZJonathan Nance 53 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Tucker McCann Kick)31–37
- Q4 7:01WYOCooper Rothe 20 Yd Field Goal 24–37
- Q4 13:29MIZTyler Badie 1 Yd Run (Tucker McCann Kick)24–34
- Q3 4:21WYOTrey Smith 1 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)17–34
- Q2 0:00WYOCooper Rothe 23 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q2 1:58WYOSean Chambers 75 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)17–24
- Q2 2:11MIZTucker McCann 22 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 6:15WYOXazavian Valladay 61 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)14–17
- Q2 7:54WYOC.J. Coldon 30 Yd Fumble Return (Cooper Rothe Kick)14–10
- Q2 9:09WYOCooper Rothe 19 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 3:19MIZLarry Rountree III 2 Yd Run (Tucker McCann Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:04MIZJonathan Nance 3 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Tucker McCann Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1493, MIZ Elo 1734 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO +7.2 (33% to win) — 9.8 points clear of WYO's market line of +17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#43 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #14 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| MIZ | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#37) | CORE overall | +2.2 (#53) |
| -4 / -10 | offense / defense | -4 / -6 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 1.53 | allowed / drive | 1.49 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →