Illinois vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLTeam statsPUR
- Q4 5:49PURPayne Durham 11 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–6
- Q3 2:35ILLReggie Corbin 20 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)24–0
- Q2 1:41ILLBrandon Peters 1 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)17–0
- Q2 9:58ILLTony Adams 13 Yd Interception Return (James McCourt Kick)10–0
- Q1 2:47ILLJames McCourt 38 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassBrandon Peters 3/6, 26 YDS
- RushDre Brown 18 CAR, 131 YDS
- RecDonny Navarro III 1 REC, 17 YDS
- PassJack Plummer 7/19, 69 YDS, 1 INT
- RushZander Horvath 9 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecJackson Anthrop 3 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:41ILL +20%
Brandon Peters run for 1 yd for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
- Q2 9:58ILL +20%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted for a TD Tony Adams return for 13 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
- Q1 2:47ILL +10%
James McCourt 38 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 2:35ILL +8%
Reggie Corbin run for 20 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
- Q2 6:46ILL +6%
Brandon Peters run for no gain to the Prdue 14
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Purdue?
Illinois 24, Purdue 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PUR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ILL | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 268 | Total yards | 271 |
| 26 | Passing yards | 136 |
| 242 | Rushing yards | 135 |
| 14 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 5-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 3/7 | Comp/Att | 15/33 |
| 3.7 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 32:23 | Possession | 27:37 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:55 ILL punt on 4th & 5 at PUR 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:49PURPayne Durham 11 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–6
- Q3 2:35ILLReggie Corbin 20 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)24–0
- Q2 1:41ILLBrandon Peters 1 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)17–0
- Q2 9:58ILLTony Adams 13 Yd Interception Return (James McCourt Kick)10–0
- Q1 2:47ILLJames McCourt 38 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1554, ILL Elo 1364 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR -10 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #41 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →The series is level at 47–47–6 · Illinois has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| ILL | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.5 (#83) | CORE overall | -8.0 (#93) |
| -6 / -1 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
| 1.80 | points / drive | 1.96 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 2.39 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →