UCF vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsTLSA
- Q4 5:09TLSAJacob Rainey 23 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q4 9:14TLSASam Crawford Jr. 17 Yd pass from Seth Boomer (Jacob Rainey Kick)31–31
- Q3 0:37UCFDylan Barnas 35 Yd Field Goal 31–24
- Q3 5:16TLSAT.K. Wilkerson 2 Yd Run (Jacob Rainey Kick)28–24
- Q2 0:11UCFOtis Anderson 6 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Dylan Barnas Kick)28–17
- Q2 6:35TLSAKeenen Johnson 35 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Jacob Rainey Kick)21–17
- Q2 11:51UCFAdrian Killins Jr. 57 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick)21–10
- Q2 12:44TLSAJacob Rainey 31 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 1:32UCFOtis Anderson 2 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:23UCFBentavious Thompson 1 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:30TLSAShamari Brooks 1 Yd Run (Jacob Rainey Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDillon Gabriel 23/38, 290 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushAdrian Killins 10 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGabe Davis 6 REC, 98 YDS
- PassZach Smith 10/14, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RushShamari Brooks 24 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeenen Johnson 6 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:54TLSA +49%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 44
- Q4 9:14TLSA +30%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)
- Q4 5:09TLSA +27%
Jacob Rainey 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 6:45TLSA +19%
Seth Boomer run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 19
- Q4 7:29UCF +15%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 14 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST down
- Q4 3:45UCF +13%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 47
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. Tulsa?
UCF 31, Tulsa 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCF | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 457 | Total yards | 353 |
| 290 | Passing yards | 214 |
| 167 | Rushing yards | 139 |
| 21 | First downs | 21 |
| 8-19 | 3rd down | 3-16 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 23/38 | Comp/Att | 16/24 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 15-120 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 26:27 | Possession | 33:33 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:30 TLSA punt on 4th & 1 at TLSA 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:09TLSAJacob Rainey 23 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q4 9:14TLSASam Crawford Jr. 17 Yd pass from Seth Boomer (Jacob Rainey Kick)31–31
- Q3 0:37UCFDylan Barnas 35 Yd Field Goal 31–24
- Q3 5:16TLSAT.K. Wilkerson 2 Yd Run (Jacob Rainey Kick)28–24
- Q2 0:11UCFOtis Anderson 6 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Dylan Barnas Kick)28–17
- Q2 6:35TLSAKeenen Johnson 35 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Jacob Rainey Kick)21–17
- Q2 11:51UCFAdrian Killins Jr. 57 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick)21–10
- Q2 12:44TLSAJacob Rainey 31 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 1:32UCFOtis Anderson 2 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:23UCFBentavious Thompson 1 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:30TLSAShamari Brooks 1 Yd Run (Jacob Rainey Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1322, UCF Elo 1898 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +20.6 (10% to win) — 3.6 points clear of UCF's market line of +17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #15 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Tulsa leads 9–3 · Tulsa has won 4 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| UCF | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.8 (#18) | CORE overall | +2.9 (#49) |
| +9 / -9 | offense / defense | -3 / -6 |
| 2.83 | points / drive | 1.98 |
| 1.50 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →