Temple vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEMTeam statsBUF
- Q4 2:00TEMBranden Mack 33 Yd pass from Anthony Russo (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–38
- Q4 8:30TEMBranden Mack 27 Yd pass from Anthony Russo (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)16–38
- Q4 9:43BUFJoey Banks 46 Yd Interception Return (Jackson Baltar Kick)10–38
- Q3 1:35TEMWill Mobley 34 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q3 6:46BUFJaret Patterson 3 Yd Run (Jackson Baltar Kick)7–31
- Q2 0:22BUFKevin Marks 2 Yd Run (Jackson Baltar Kick)7–24
- Q2 7:02BUFMatt Myers 7 Yd Run (Jackson Baltar Kick)7–17
- Q2 11:32BUFJaret Patterson 4 Yd Run (Jackson Baltar Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:12BUFJackson Baltar 52 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 6:19TEMIsaiah Wright 2 Yd pass from Anthony Russo (Will Mobley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAnthony Russo 25/51, 258 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- RushRay Davis 7 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecJadan Blue 8 REC, 87 YDS
- PassMatt Myers 9/15, 62 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaret Patterson 27 CAR, 133 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAntonio Nunn 3 REC, 23 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:32BUF +22%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)
- Q2 0:22BUF +22%
Kevin Marks 2 Yd Run (Jackson Baltar Kick)
- Q2 7:02BUF +21%
Matt Myers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)
- Q1 6:19TEM +16%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)
- Q2 14:12BUF +7%
Jackson Baltar 52 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Temple vs. Buffalo?
Temple 22, Buffalo 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TEM | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 289 | Total yards | 279 |
| 258 | Passing yards | 62 |
| 31 | Rushing yards | 217 |
| 16 | First downs | 17 |
| 2-16 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 4-8 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/51 | Comp/Att | 9/15 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 1.3 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-57 | Penalties | 7-55 |
| 22:51 | Possession | 37:09 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:29 TEM go for it on 4th & 11 at BUF 19. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.97 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:00TEMBranden Mack 33 Yd pass from Anthony Russo (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–38
- Q4 8:30TEMBranden Mack 27 Yd pass from Anthony Russo (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)16–38
- Q4 9:43BUFJoey Banks 46 Yd Interception Return (Jackson Baltar Kick)10–38
- Q3 1:35TEMWill Mobley 34 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q3 6:46BUFJaret Patterson 3 Yd Run (Jackson Baltar Kick)7–31
- Q2 0:22BUFKevin Marks 2 Yd Run (Jackson Baltar Kick)7–24
- Q2 7:02BUFMatt Myers 7 Yd Run (Jackson Baltar Kick)7–17
- Q2 11:32BUFJaret Patterson 4 Yd Run (Jackson Baltar Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:12BUFJackson Baltar 52 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 6:19TEMIsaiah Wright 2 Yd pass from Anthony Russo (Will Mobley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1366, TEM Elo 1560 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF +5.4 (37% to win) — 8.6 points clear of BUF's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #22 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Buffalo leads 9–4 · Buffalo has won 2 straight · 31% have been one-possession games
| TEM | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.2 (#52) | CORE overall | +2.9 (#50) |
| -7 / -9 | offense / defense | -2 / -5 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.44 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 1.77 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →