San José State vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsARK
- Q4 1:13SJSUDeJon Packer 19 Yd Run (Matt Mercurio Kick)31–24
- Q4 2:56ARKTrey Knox 8 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Connor Limpert Kick)24–24
- Q4 13:10ARKTyson Morris 30 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Connor Limpert Kick)24–17
- Q3 5:01ARKConnor Limpert 48 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 1:06SJSUIsaiah Holiness 26 Yd pass from Josh Love (Matt Mercurio Kick)24–7
- Q2 6:09SJSUMatt Mercurio 47 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 14:18SJSUNick Nash 15 Yd Run (Matt Mercurio Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:07ARKMike Woods 62 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Connor Limpert Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:44SJSUJaQuan Blackwell 3 Yd pass from Josh Love (Matt Mercurio Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SJSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.2 vs 3rd & 7.0
- PassJosh Love 32/49, 402 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeJon Packer 8 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTre Walker 12 REC, 161 YDS
- PassNick Starkel 28/50, 356 YDS, 3 TD, 5 INT
- RushRakeem Boyd 18 CAR, 91 YDS
- RecMichael Woods II 4 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSJSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:56ARK +54%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
- Q4 1:13SJSU +39%
DeJon Packer run for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
- Q4 2:56SJSU +33%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 20
- Q2 1:06SJSU +21%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 26 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
- Q4 13:10ARK +21%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyson Morris for 30 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
- Q2 14:18SJSU +19%
Nick Nash run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. Arkansas?
San José State 31, Arkansas 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SJSU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 503 | Total yards | 487 |
| 402 | Passing yards | 356 |
| 101 | Rushing yards | 131 |
| 27 | First downs | 26 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 32/49 | Comp/Att | 28/50 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 9-85 | Penalties | 6-62 |
| 30:54 | Possession | 29:06 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:34 SJSU punt on 4th & 8 at ARK 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:13SJSUDeJon Packer 19 Yd Run (Matt Mercurio Kick)31–24
- Q4 2:56ARKTrey Knox 8 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Connor Limpert Kick)24–24
- Q4 13:10ARKTyson Morris 30 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Connor Limpert Kick)24–17
- Q3 5:01ARKConnor Limpert 48 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 1:06SJSUIsaiah Holiness 26 Yd pass from Josh Love (Matt Mercurio Kick)24–7
- Q2 6:09SJSUMatt Mercurio 47 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 14:18SJSUNick Nash 15 Yd Run (Matt Mercurio Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:07ARKMike Woods 62 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Connor Limpert Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:44SJSUJaQuan Blackwell 3 Yd pass from Josh Love (Matt Mercurio Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1381, SJSU Elo 1175 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK -10.6 (77% to win) — 9.4 points clear of SJSU's market line of -20. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#30 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #10 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| SJSU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.1 (#97) | CORE overall | -16.4 (#112) |
| +2 / +11 | offense / defense | -7 / +9 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 1.54 |
| 2.77 | allowed / drive | 3.39 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +17 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →