Maryland vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsPUR
- Q4 13:05PURDavid Bell 8 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (J.D. Dellinger Kick)14–40
- Q3 5:40PURJ.D. Dellinger 27 Yd Field Goal 14–33
- Q2 0:18PURCory Trice 37 Yd Interception Return (J.D. Dellinger Kick)14–30
- Q2 5:00PURJ.D. Dellinger 27 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q2 9:31MDTyrrell Pigrome 61 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)14–20
- Q2 11:05PURMilton Wright 59 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (J.D. Dellinger Kick)7–20
- Q2 13:57MDJavon Leake 21 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)7–13
- Q1 7:13PURKing Doerue 4 Yd Run (J.D. Dellinger Kick)0–13
- Q1 10:44PURDavid Bell 23 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–6
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PUR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 7.4
- MD lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 20% explosive on a 30% success rate
- PassTyrrell Pigrome 21/39, 218 YDS, 2 INT
- RushTyrrell Pigrome 13 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDontay Demus Jr. 10 REC, 105 YDS
- PassJack Plummer 33/41, 420 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKing Doerue 19 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrycen Hopkins 10 REC, 140 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPUR up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:05PUR +17%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Milton Wright for 59 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)
- Q2 9:31MD +17%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 61 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
- Q2 13:57MD +17%
Javon Leake run for 21 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
- Q1 7:13PUR +16%
King Doerue run for 4 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)
- Q1 10:44PUR +15%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q2 0:18PUR +15%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass intercepted for a TD Cory Trice return for 37 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Purdue?
Maryland 14, Purdue 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MD | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 403 | Total yards | 547 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 420 |
| 185 | Rushing yards | 127 |
| 15 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 11-18 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/39 | Comp/Att | 33/41 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 10.2 |
| 7.1 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-67 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 22:54 | Possession | 37:06 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:39 MD go for it on 4th & 7 at PUR 21. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.70 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:05PURDavid Bell 8 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (J.D. Dellinger Kick)14–40
- Q3 5:40PURJ.D. Dellinger 27 Yd Field Goal 14–33
- Q2 0:18PURCory Trice 37 Yd Interception Return (J.D. Dellinger Kick)14–30
- Q2 5:00PURJ.D. Dellinger 27 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q2 9:31MDTyrrell Pigrome 61 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)14–20
- Q2 11:05PURMilton Wright 59 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (J.D. Dellinger Kick)7–20
- Q2 13:57MDJavon Leake 21 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)7–13
- Q1 7:13PURKing Doerue 4 Yd Run (J.D. Dellinger Kick)0–13
- Q1 10:44PURDavid Bell 23 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1469, MD Elo 1549 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +0.8 (49% to win) — 3.2 points clear of PUR's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#19 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #78 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| MD | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.9 (#114) | CORE overall | -8.0 (#93) |
| -14 / +3 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
| 1.36 | points / drive | 1.96 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.39 |
| 39% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →