SMU vs. Florida Atlantic: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SMUTeam statsFAU
- Q4 1:07SMUJames Proche 22 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Kevin Robledo Kick)28–52
- Q4 3:17FAUJavion Posey 23 Yd pass from Nick Tronti (Vladimir Rivas Kick)21–52
- Q4 10:08SMURyan Becker 2 Yd pass from Ke'Mon Freeman (Kevin Robledo Kick)21–45
- Q4 13:09FAUVladimir Rivas 38 Yd Field Goal 14–45
- Q3 4:05FAURashad Smith 34 Yd Fumble Return (Vladimir Rivas Kick)14–42
- Q3 6:23FAUJohn Raine 18 Yd pass from Chris Robison (Vladimir Rivas Kick)14–35
- Q2 0:36FAUBrandon Robinson 13 Yd pass from Chris Robison (Vladimir Rivas Kick)14–28
- Q2 1:00FAUJames Charles 15 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)14–21
- Q2 2:12SMUXavier Jones 1 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick)14–14
- Q2 7:48FAUJames Charles 1 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:05SMUXavier Jones 1 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:11FAUBJ Emmons 1 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassShane Buechele 27/47, 303 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKe'Mon Freeman 15 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecKylen Granson 7 REC, 93 YDS
- PassChris Robison 27/37, 305 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBJ Emmons 17 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrandon Robinson 5 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:12SMU +21%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)
- Q2 1:00FAU +20%
James Charles run for 15 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
- Q2 7:48FAU +18%
James Charles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
- Q2 14:05SMU +17%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)
- Q1 3:11FAU +16%
BJ Emmons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
- Q2 0:36FAU +15%
Chris Robison pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 13 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of SMU vs. Florida Atlantic?
SMU 28, Florida Atlantic 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FAU) was correct.
| SMU | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 425 | Total yards | 521 |
| 305 | Passing yards | 333 |
| 120 | Rushing yards | 188 |
| 24 | First downs | 30 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 28/50 | Comp/Att | 29/39 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-55 | Penalties | 5-39 |
| 28:56 | Possession | 31:04 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:55 SMU punt on 4th & 1 at SMU 12. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:07SMUJames Proche 22 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Kevin Robledo Kick)28–52
- Q4 3:17FAUJavion Posey 23 Yd pass from Nick Tronti (Vladimir Rivas Kick)21–52
- Q4 10:08SMURyan Becker 2 Yd pass from Ke'Mon Freeman (Kevin Robledo Kick)21–45
- Q4 13:09FAUVladimir Rivas 38 Yd Field Goal 14–45
- Q3 4:05FAURashad Smith 34 Yd Fumble Return (Vladimir Rivas Kick)14–42
- Q3 6:23FAUJohn Raine 18 Yd pass from Chris Robison (Vladimir Rivas Kick)14–35
- Q2 0:36FAUBrandon Robinson 13 Yd pass from Chris Robison (Vladimir Rivas Kick)14–28
- Q2 1:00FAUJames Charles 15 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)14–21
- Q2 2:12SMUXavier Jones 1 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick)14–14
- Q2 7:48FAUJames Charles 1 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:05SMUXavier Jones 1 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:11FAUBJ Emmons 1 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1727, SMU Elo 1636 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU -6 (67% to win) — 13.0 points clear of FAU's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #58 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| SMU | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.0 (#41) | CORE overall | +5.7 (#42) |
| +4 / -2 | offense / defense | +0 / -5 |
| 3.05 | points / drive | 2.64 |
| 2.29 | allowed / drive | 1.80 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →