2025 season, 16 games in. Ratings and records refresh through the season; nothing here is a preseason guess. Preseason projections →
Best:
James Madison#13 nationally
Median and standing are by Elo rating, measured against every conference with at least four rated teams.
Sun Belt in orange, the rest of the country in grey. Elo rating, all 136 teams.
Showing 14 of 136 teams in the Sun Belt. Ranks stay national — #1 means first in the country, not first here.
Ranked teams the model likes more than the human poll.
2025 coverage: Elo 136/136 · SP+ 136/136 · FPI 136/136 · SRS 136/136 · CORE off/def 136/136 · schedule 136/136 · AP poll 49. Metrics with no teams yet this season are left out of the table rather than shown as a column of dashes.
Every rating here is bought in except CORE, which we build. How we build it →
Every other column on this page is bought in — Elo, SP+, FPI, SRS and the AP poll all arrive from CollegeFootballData. CORE is the exception. We build it here, from play-by-play, and it is published nowhere else.
It answers a narrower question than a power rating: how good is this team per play, once you remove the situations it happened to face and the opponents it happened to draw? Two teams can post identical yards per play when one of them ran its snaps at a three-score lead against the worst defenses on the schedule. That gap is most of the difference between the two numbers, and every raw per-play stat carries it.
So we remove both, in two stages. First the situation: each play’s expected value is predicted from game state alone — period, clock, score margin, down, distance, field position, home or away, pass or rush — with no team identity in the model at all, and what is left over is the part the situation does not explain. Then the opponent: offenses and defenses form one connected network over a season, so both sides are fitted at once by ridge regression rather than credited separately. Ridge specifically, because in September the schedule graph is barely connected and an unregularised fit hands a huge rating to whoever beat an overmatched opener.
Reported in points per 100 qualifying plays, above average. Offense is better when high, defense when low. Overtime, garbage time, FBS-vs-FCS games, special teams and non-scrimmage plays are all excluded.
⚠ CORE is a measurement, not a forecast. It says what a team has already done per play, adjusted. It does not say who wins next week — that is a separate model, and the two are kept as separate objects on purpose. Full method →
Old Dominion |
| 10‑36‑2 conf |
| Sun Belt#2 |
| 1670 |
| D11O42 |
| #8112 gm |
| 75 | Marshall | 5‑73‑5 conf | Sun Belt#3 | 1468 | D80O64 | #8811 gm |
| 821 up 1 places since last week | Louisiana Tech | 8‑55‑3 conf | Sun Belt#4 | 1431 | D44O103 | #13112 gm |
| 88 | Troy | 8‑66‑2 conf | Sun Belt#5 | 1384 | D86O125 | #9213 gm |
| 944 up 4 places since last week | South Alabama | 4‑83‑5 conf | Sun Belt#6 | 1336 | D120O86 | #11011 gm |
| 962 down 2 places since last week | Louisiana | 6‑75‑3 conf | Sun Belt#7 | 1334 | D128O112 | #10612 gm |
| 1011 up 1 places since last week | Arkansas State | 7‑65‑3 conf | Sun Belt#8 | 1317 | D100O116 | #11612 gm |
| 1026 up 6 places since last week | Georgia Southern | 7‑64‑4 conf | Sun Belt#9 | 1314 | D134O53 | #9112 gm |
| 1082 down 2 places since last week | Southern Miss | 7‑65‑3 conf | Sun Belt#10 | 1275 | D67O100 | #11512 gm |
| 1154 down 4 places since last week | App State | 5‑82‑6 conf | Sun Belt#11 | 1216 | D112O115 | #11712 gm |
| 1211 down 1 places since last week | Coastal Carolina | 6‑75‑3 conf | Sun Belt#12 | 1163 | D109O113 | #8512 gm |
| 126 | Georgia State | 1‑110‑8 conf | Sun Belt#13 | 1112 | D123O99 | #6311 gm |
| 132 | UL Monroe | 3‑91‑7 conf | Sun Belt#14 | 1016 | D107O110 | #9511 gm |
