vs Utah State · Wk 3Win prob 76%Model -11.1Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Devon DampierPassing437 yds · 5 TD · 1 INT
Wayshawn ParkerRushing124 yds · 3 TD · 5.6 avg
Noah BenneeReceiving5 rec · 148 yds · 2 TD
Nate RitchieTackles9 tackles · 1.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Utah
All news →Arkansas's defense holds everywhere except over the top
Utah Threw Deep All Night. The 66 Points Came From Everything Else
Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Devon Dampier | QB | SR | 5'11" | 210 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 9 | Kane Archer | QB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Greenwood, AR |
| 13 | Michael Johnson | QB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Ellenwood, GA |
| 14 | Brandon Rose | QB | SR | 6'2" | 212 | Temecula, CA |
| 15 | Byrd Ficklin | QB | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Muskogee, OK |
| 1 | Wayshawn Parker | RB | JR | 5'10" | 205 | Richmond, CA |
| 3 | Nate Johnson | RB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Clovis, CA |
| 5 | Daniel Bray | RB | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 20 | Mateaki Helu | RB | SO | 6'1" | 224 | Tooele, UT |
| 25 | Steve Chavez-Soto | RB | SO | 6'0" | 205 | Chino, CA |
| 26 | LaMarcus Bell | RB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Portland, OR |
| 28 | Anthony Hernandez | RB | JR | 5'10" | 192 | Park City, UT |
| 84 | Jojo Ward | RB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | — |
| 0 | Kyri Shoels | WR | SR | 6'0" | 182 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 2 | Creed Whittemore | WR | SR | 5'11" | 182 | Gainesville, FL |
| 6 | Daidren Zipperer | WR | SR | 6'0" | 175 | Lakeland, FL |
| 7 | Braden Pegan | WR | SR | 6'3" | 210 | San Juan Capistrano, CA |
| 8 | Mana Carvalho | WR | SO | 5'9" | 175 | Laie, HI |
| 11 | Ricky Johnson | WR | SO | 6'2" | 185 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 12 | Larry Simmons | WR | SR | 6'1" | 190 | Moss Point, MS |
| 18 | Tobias Merriweather | WR | SR | 6'5" | 200 | Vancouver, WA |
| 30 | Matt Clark | WR | JR | 5'11" | 181 | Mesa, AZ |
| 37 | Peyton Rice | WR | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 39 | Junior Coughlin | WR | SO | 6'0" | 176 | Lehi, UT |
| 80 | Bryson Baker | WR | SO | 6'1" | 185 | Fresno, CA |
| 82 | Max Ausmus | WR | SO | 6'1" | 185 | Redondo Beach, CA |
| 10 | Hunter Andrews | TE | JR | 6'3" | 230 | Magnolia, TX |
| 33 | Kana'i Lopes | TE | JR | 6'3" | 228 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 44 | Sione Motuapuaka | TE | SO | 5'11" | 276 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 46 | Teague Matthews | TE | FR | 6'6" | 240 | Rockland, ID |
| 81 | Bear Fisher | TE | FR | 6'5" | 240 | Queen Creek, AZ |
| 85 | Broderick Redden | TE | SO | 6'4" | 233 | San Clemente, CA |
| 86 | Will Monney | TE | JR | 6'4" | 230 | Springville, UT |
| 89 | Noah Bennee | TE | SR | 6'4" | 240 | Holladay, UT |
| 99 | Semi Taulanga | TE | SO | 5'11" | 317 | Santa Ana, CA |
| 54 | Milz Asiata | OL | FR | 6'5" | 331 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 55 | Kelvin Obot | OL | FR | 6'5" | 295 | Fruitland, ID |
| 56 | Isaiah Kema | OL | FR | 6'3" | 312 | Lubbock, TX |
| 57 | Moses Sparks | OL | FR | 6'4" | 305 | Rio Rancho, NM |
| 61 | Cyrus Nielsen | OL | FR | 6'5" | 315 | Sandy, UT |
| 62 | Solatoa Moea'i | OL | SR | 6'4" | 325 | Laie, HI |
| 63 | Devin Entsminger | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 64 | Reece Parmenter | OL | JR | 6'5" | 319 | St. George, UT |
| 66 | Will Fry | OL | FR | 6'4" | 315 | Fairview, TX |
| 67 | Soren Shinofield | OL | SO | 6'6" | 304 | Greenwood Village, CO |
| 70 | Mataalii Benjamin | OL | FR | 6'7" | 340 | Lehi, UT |
| 71 | Rowdy Pearce | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Midland, TX |
| 72 | Isaiah Garcia | OL | JR | 6'5" | 310 | Magna, UT |
| 73 | Cedric Jefferson | OL | JR | 6'5" | 300 | Temecula, CA |
| 74 | Keith Olson | OL | SR | 6'6" | 307 | Napavine, WA |
| 75 | Roger Alderman | OL | SR | 6'4" | 302 | Sonora, CA |
| 76 | Zereoue Williams | OL | SR | 6'8" | 305 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 77 | Nick Hallock | OL | SO | 6'4" | 275 | South Jordan, UT |
| 79 | Alex Harrison | OL | SR | 6'5" | 309 | Bountiful, UT |
| 8 | Ethan Day | DE | JR | 6'4" | 250 | Ripon, CA |
| 15 | Lance Holtzclaw | DE | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Boston, MA |
| 16 | PJ Takitaki | DE | FR | 6'3" | 223 | Lehi, UT |
| 40 | Paul Fitzgerald | DE | SR | 6'4" | 256 | Idaho Falls, ID |
| 46 | Mauka Bernard | DE | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 47 | Jared Fredrick | DE | FR | 6'3" | 220 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 48 | Alex Cloward | DE | FR | 6'3" | 247 | Salem, UT |
| 58 | Fameitau Siale | DE | FR | 6'3" | 265 | Seattle, WA |
| 92 | Nicholas Igwe | DE | SO | 6'4" | 255 | Houston, TX |
| 93 | Kash Dillon | DE | JR | 6'5" | 252 | Draper, UT |
| 45 | Pupu Sepulona | DT | SO | 6'2" | 298 | Kalihi, HI |
| 51 | Karson Kaufusi | DT | SO | 6'6" | 305 | Holladay, UT |
| 57 | Stanley Raass | DT | FR | 6'0" | 290 | Laie, HI |
| 90 | Jireh Moe | DT | SO | 6'0" | 280 | Westminster, CA |
| 94 | Mike Tauteoli | DT | JR | 6'4" | 300 | Midvale, UT |
| 96 | Dilan Battle | DT | SO | 6'2" | 320 | Arlington, TX |
| 97 | Lucas Samsula | DT | SO | 6'4" | 306 | Plano, TX |
| 99 | Jamal Wallace | DT | SR | 6'3" | 313 | Kansas City, MO |
| 0 | Cyrus Polu | LB | SO | 6'1" | 225 | St. George, UT |
| 7 | Johnathan Hall | LB | SR | 6'1" | 226 | Katy, TX |
| 10 | Trey Reynolds | LB | SR | 6'1" | 231 | Queen Creek, AZ |
| 35 | Preston Pitts | LB | FR | 6'4" | 225 | League City, TX |
| 41 | LaGary Mitchell | LB | FR | 6'2" | 212 | Meridian, ID |
| 43 | Grady Mareko | LB | JR | 6'1" | 231 | Leone |
| 53 | Brock Fonoimoana | LB | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Laie, HI |
| 53 | Jed Judkins | LB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | — |
| 54 | Tayson Reid | LB | SO | 6'0" | 230 | Spanish Fork, UT |
| 83 | Elijah Elliss | LB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | Farmington, UT |
| 2 | Rock Caldwell | CB | SR | 6'3" | 190 | Belleville, MI |
| 4 | JC Hart | CB | SR | 6'2" | 202 | Loachapoka, AL |
| 5 | James Chenault Jr. | CB | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Orlando, FL |
| 9 | Elijah Davis | CB | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Winter Haven, FL |
| 11 | Elijah Reed | CB | SR | 6'3" | 200 | Louisville, KY |
| 13 | Nick Brown | CB | SO | 6'0" | 170 | Orem, UT |
| 13 | Nick Brown | CB | SO | 6'0" | 170 | Cypress, TX |
| 18 | Earl Parker | CB | JR | 6'2" | 186 | Fairbanks, AK |
| 19 | Dylan Waters | CB | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Missouri City, TX |
| 20 | King Long | CB | FR | 5'9" | 180 | — |
| 27 | Brandon Holmes | CB | SO | 6'1" | 180 | Tempe, AZ |
| 29 | Major Hinchen | CB | FR | 6'2" | 175 | La Quinta, CA |
| 1 | Rabbit Evans | S | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 6 | Nate Ritchie | S | SR | 6'2" | 207 | Cedar Hills, UT |
| 12 | Davis Andrews | S | FR | 6'3" | 200 | Highland, UT |
| 14 | Cole Standage | S | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Mesa, AZ |
| 21 | Nate Tilmon | S | SO | 6'1" | 196 | Arlington, TX |
| 23 | Jackson Bennee | S | JR | 6'2" | 190 | Holladay, UT |
| 24 | Marcus Wimberly | S | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Bauxite, AR |
| 25 | Manny Fuller | S | SO | 6'0" | 190 | El Paso, TX |
| 28 | Luke Bryant | S | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Holladay, UT |
| 31 | Jack Evans | S | SO | 6'0" | 192 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 32 | Josh Sovereign | S | SO | 5'11" | 198 | Chandler, AZ |
| 34 | Ashton Olevao | S | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 38 | Tommy Nelson | S | SO | 6'3" | 193 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 17 | Dillon Curtis | PK | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Murray, UT |
| 88 | Tanner Cragun | PK | JR | 6'2" | 205 | Frisco, TX |
| 92 | Orion Phillips | P | JR | 6'3" | 180 | Sandringham, VIC |
| 65 | Logan Castor | LS | SR | 6'6" | 240 | Cottonwood Heights, UT |
| 69 | Gage Victor | LS | SO | 6'1" | 215 | Rio Rancho, NM |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Utah is in year 1 under Morgan Scalley. The strengths are offensive, led by 1st at running it. The way in is 130th at keeping everything in front of them.
Utah has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#1projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#1projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#6projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#130projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 4.00#8
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.52 / 0.67
- Power / stuff (off)
- 75.0% / 14.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 20.6%#30
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 8.5% / 12.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.32#13 | 0.72#8 | 1.03#13 |
| Defense | -0.28#18 | 0.28#95 | 0.56#99 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.4390th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1144th
- Offense success rate54%87th
- Defense success rate allowed33%74th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs54%69th
- Offense success — passing downs55%98th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs35%82nd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs30%40th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.472nd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.414th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.393rd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.726th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.788th
- Defense line yards allowed2.650th
- Offense highlight yards1.258th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.5264th
- Offense power success0.7346th
- Defense power success allowed0.8324th
- Offense stuff rate0.1848th
- Defense stuff rate0.1626th
Third down
- Third down conversion62%93rd
- Third down distance faced5.099th
- Third down conversion allowed32%66th
- Third down distance forced8.485th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.2991st
- Net success rate — second half0.1781st
Drives
- Points per drive4.293rd
- Points per drive allowed1.085th
- Average starting field position3588th
- Opponent starting field position2487th
- Available yards gained70%91st
- Available yards allowed35%84th
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed80%51st
- Points per scoring opportunity4.286th
- Points allowed per opportunity1.389th
- Three-and-out rate20%64th
- Three-and-outs forced40%88th
Roster
- Returning usage72%87th
- Returning EPA27993rd
- Team talent composite69658th
- Recruiting class rank27.081st
- Recruiting class points22781st
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.321 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 52.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 46.6%
- Over expected
- +6.3
- Fourth down vs peers
- +15
- Fourth down vs the model
- -50
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Utah is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Utah in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 11-2 | 7-2 | 85% | 10.6 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 2-7 | 42% | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 2023 | 8-5 | 5-4 | 62% | 8.7 | -0.7 |
| 2022 | 10-4 | 8-2 | 71% | 9.6 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 10-4 | 9-1 | 71% | 10.2 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 60% | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 11-3 | 8-2 | 79% | 11.2 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 9-5 | 6-4 | 64% | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 3-6 | 54% | 7.4 | -0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 9.3-3.0. Top-four bye in 10%. Wins the Big 12 in 17%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
up 17.4 points since preseason.
- At 2 losses they are 52% where the average Big 12 team is 56%.
- The Big 12 takes 1.77 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.9%.
Utah’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk10vs BYU34.6
- wk11at Arizona33.1
- wk9at Cincinnati30.9
- wk12at TCU30.7
- wk8vs Houston30.5
- wk7at Colorado29.9
Who to root for
Games Utah is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk5UAB over Samford2.6
- wk13Arkansas over LSU2.4
- wk6Arkansas over Tennessee2.2
- wk5Arkansas over Texas A&M2.1
- wk3Iowa State over Bowling Green2.1
- wk5North Carolina over Notre Dame2.1
Big 12
0-0 in league play, projected 6.3-2.73 of 16 by title oddsThe Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk10BYU at Utah21.8
- wk11Utah at Arizona17.9
- wk8Houston at Utah16.6
- wk12Utah at TCU16.5
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →
If not the playoff, then
Utah is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.5% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Alamo Bowl15%
- Texas Bowl11%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl8.9%
- Liberty Bowl7.1%
- Rate Bowl5.5%
- Independence Bowl4.7%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Utah a player since 2010 — 28 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Utah's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.