North Texas vs. Western Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsWKU
- Q4 2:08UNTIkaika Ragsdale 11 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)40–13
- Q4 8:57UNTAyo Adeyi 39 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)33–13
- Q4 14:11UNTIkaika Ragsdale 5 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney PAT blocked)26–13
- Q2 0:00UNTEthan Mooney 20 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 1:28WKUBrayden Narveson 32 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 14:51WKUBrayden Narveson 43 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q1 1:30UNTEthan Mooney 39 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 5:44WKUJoshua Simon 5 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Brayden Narveson Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:24UNTDamon Ward Jr. 56 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:39UNTKaylon Horton 28 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WKU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 6.4
- PassAustin Aune 20/28, 322 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAyo Adeyi 10 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDamon Ward Jr. 4 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAustin Reed 29/49, 320 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLT Sanders 13 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecMalachi Corley 8 REC, 97 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:37UNT +22%
A.Aune pass complete to WKY 5. Catch made by I.Ragsdale at WKY 5. Gain of 5 yards. I.Ragsdale for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 8:48UNT +17%
A.Aune pass complete to NTX 44. Catch made by D.Ward at NTX 44. Gain of 56 yards. D.Ward for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 5:55WKU +17%
A.Reed pass complete to NTX 5. Catch made by J.Simon at NTX 5. Gain of 5 yards. J.Simon for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 0:52UNT +12%
A.Aune pass complete to NTX 26. Catch made by J.Maclin at NTX 26. Gain of 52 yards. Tackled by WKY at WKY 22
- Q3 3:10UNT +12%
B.Rodriguez punts 35 yards to WKY 28, Center-J.Hadley. Fair catch by J.Hall
- Q1 11:52UNT +12%
A.Aune pass complete to WKY 28. Catch made by K.Horton at WKY 28. Gain of 28 yards. K.Horton for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Western Kentucky?
North Texas 40, Western Kentucky 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WKU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNT | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 541 | Total yards | 466 |
| 345 | Passing yards | 320 |
| 196 | Rushing yards | 146 |
| 25 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 22/30 | Comp/Att | 29/49 |
| 11.5 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 9-85 |
| 29:05 | Possession | 30:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:02 UNT field goal on 4th & 3 at WKU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:08UNTIkaika Ragsdale 11 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)40–13
- Q4 8:57UNTAyo Adeyi 39 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)33–13
- Q4 14:11UNTIkaika Ragsdale 5 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney PAT blocked)26–13
- Q2 0:00UNTEthan Mooney 20 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 1:28WKUBrayden Narveson 32 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 14:51WKUBrayden Narveson 43 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q1 1:30UNTEthan Mooney 39 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 5:44WKUJoshua Simon 5 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Brayden Narveson Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:24UNTDamon Ward Jr. 56 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:39UNTKaylon Horton 28 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WKU Elo 1782, UNT Elo 1361 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WKU -19.2 (89% to win) — 9.2 points clear of WKU's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #57 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →North Texas leads 5–4 · 22% have been one-possession games
| UNT | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 (#74) | CORE overall | +6.6 (#40) |
| +1 / +4 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 2.77 |
| 2.52 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →