Rhode Island vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Rhode Island

0035

Georgia State

▸0042

Final

Center Parc Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
RHOD	0	14	14	7	35
GAST	14	7	14	7	42

RHODTeam statsGAST

520Total yards424

408Pass193

112Rush231

22First downs20

13-203rd down6-12

2Turnovers0

36:19Possession23:41

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:27RHODKasim Hill 5 Yd Run (Ty Groff Kick)35–42
• Q4 8:16GASTMarcus Carroll 12 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)28–42
• Q3 1:30GASTGavin Pringle 21 Yd Interception Return (Liam Rickman Kick)28–35
• Q3 6:21GASTMarcus Carroll 23 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)28–28
• Q3 8:02RHODMarquis Buchanan 28 Yd pass from Kasim Hill (Ty Groff Kick)28–21
• Q3 14:12RHODDarius Savedge 63 Yd pass from Kasim Hill (Ty Groff Kick)21–21
• Q2 1:40RHODGabe Sloat 15 Yd pass from Kasim Hill (Ty Groff Kick)14–21
• Q2 11:31GASTTailique Williams 42 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)7–21
• Q2 14:10RHODJohn Erby 20 Yd pass from Kasim Hill (Ty Groff Kick)7–14
• Q1 4:15GASTMarcus Carroll 9 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:36GASTRobert Lewis 39 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

GAST −17.5

Against the number

RHOD covered

line GAST −17.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

GAST 100%50%RHOD 100%

Kickoff153 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

GAST (top)RHOD (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GAST 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

GAST −17.5

Closing total

59.5

Model line

—

Actual result

RHOD 35 – 42 GAST

Leaders

Rhode Island

• PassKasim Hill 24/40, 408 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
• RushDeon Silas 10 CAR, 50 YDS
• RecMarquis Buchanan 2 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD

Georgia State

• PassDarren Grainger 16/20, 193 YDS, 2 TD
• RushMarcus Carroll 23 CAR, 184 YDS, 3 TD
• RecRobert Lewis 7 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

136

Points / snap

0.57

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

GAST up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,298 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

81%

GAST went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WNorthern Illinois vs Boston College27-24WWestern Kentucky vs South Florida41-24WEastern Michigan vs Howard33-23LArmy vs UL Monroe13-17WFlorida State vs LSU45-24

Fourth downs

12 calls

GAST gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.RHOD 4/5 · GAST 4/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Rhode Island vs. Georgia State?

Rhode Island 35, Georgia State 42.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (GAST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

RHOD

GAST

43%

Success rate

51%

0.37

EPA / pass

0.56

0.14

EPA / rush

0.35

34%

Early-down success

51%

49%

Pass success

59%

35%

Rush success

46%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

56%

Pass rate

37%

6.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.1

RHOD

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

77 scrimmage snaps

GAST

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

RHOD		GAST
520	Total yards	424
408	Passing yards	193
112	Rushing yards	231
22	First downs	20
13-20	3rd down	6-12
1-1	4th down	1-1
24/40	Comp/Att	16/20
10.2	Yards per pass	9.7
3.2	Yards per rush	6.1
2	Turnovers	0
9-70	Penalties	5-65
36:19	Possession	23:41

Fourth downs

12 calls

RHOD

4/5 with the model

nothing given up

GAST

4/5 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 1:54 GAST punt on 4th & 2 at GAST 20. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.31 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

RHOD 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →GAST 5/11 scoring drives

GASTTD4 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1

RHODMISS10 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q1

GASTTD13 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

RHODTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

GASTTD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

RHODINT12 pl, 65 yds· own 25Q2

GASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q2

RHODTD5 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q2

GASTPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 31Q2

RHODEND3 pl, -3 yds· own 7Q2

RHODTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

GASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 28Q3

RHODTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3

GASTTD5 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

RHODPUNT5 pl, 30 yds· own 16Q3

GASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 12Q3

RHODTD1 pl, -10 yds· own 28Q3

RHODPUNT10 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q3

GASTTD4 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q4

RHODTD3 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q4

GASTPUNT4 pl, 1 yds· own 24Q4

RHODPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 26Q4

GASTEND9 pl, 19 yds· own 41Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:27RHODKasim Hill 5 Yd Run (Ty Groff Kick)35–42
• Q4 8:16GASTMarcus Carroll 12 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)28–42
• Q3 1:30GASTGavin Pringle 21 Yd Interception Return (Liam Rickman Kick)28–35
• Q3 6:21GASTMarcus Carroll 23 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)28–28
• Q3 8:02RHODMarquis Buchanan 28 Yd pass from Kasim Hill (Ty Groff Kick)28–21
• Q3 14:12RHODDarius Savedge 63 Yd pass from Kasim Hill (Ty Groff Kick)21–21
• Q2 1:40RHODGabe Sloat 15 Yd pass from Kasim Hill (Ty Groff Kick)14–21
• Q2 11:31GASTTailique Williams 42 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)7–21
• Q2 14:10RHODJohn Erby 20 Yd pass from Kasim Hill (Ty Groff Kick)7–14
• Q1 4:15GASTMarcus Carroll 9 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:36GASTRobert Lewis 39 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →