South Florida vs. Western Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USFTeam statsWKU
- Q4 2:51WKUJaQues Evans 27 Yd Fumble Return (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–41
- Q4 3:19WKULucas Carneiro 42 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q3 8:03WKUMoussa Barry 51 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–31
- Q3 10:11USFByrum Brown 28 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)24–24
- Q3 13:01WKUDalvin Smith 42 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Lucas Carneiro Kick)17–24
- Q2 3:04WKUAustin Reed 16 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)17–17
- Q2 7:37WKULucas Carneiro 41 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 13:31USFJohn Cannon 37 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 4:28USFKhafre Brown 84 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:03WKUMarkese Stepp 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:36USFByrum Brown 6 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WKU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassByrum Brown 15/34, 166 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushByrum Brown 25 CAR, 160 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKhafre Brown 3 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAustin Reed 29/50, 336 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDavion Ervin-Poindexter 10 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecDalvin Smith 7 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,296 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:11USF +17%
Byrum Brown run for 28 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q2 3:04WKU +17%
Austin Reed run for 16 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q1 4:28USF +15%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 84 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q3 8:03WKU +14%
Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 51 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q1 11:36USF +14%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q1 7:03WKU +13%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. Western Kentucky?
South Florida 24, Western Kentucky 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
| USF | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 540 | Total yards | 465 |
| 166 | Passing yards | 336 |
| 374 | Rushing yards | 129 |
| 26 | First downs | 22 |
| 8-21 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 15/34 | Comp/Att | 29/50 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-100 | Penalties | 9-55 |
| 30:29 | Possession | 29:31 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:55 USF punt on 4th & 2 at USF 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:51WKUJaQues Evans 27 Yd Fumble Return (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–41
- Q4 3:19WKULucas Carneiro 42 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q3 8:03WKUMoussa Barry 51 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–31
- Q3 10:11USFByrum Brown 28 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)24–24
- Q3 13:01WKUDalvin Smith 42 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Lucas Carneiro Kick)17–24
- Q2 3:04WKUAustin Reed 16 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)17–17
- Q2 7:37WKULucas Carneiro 41 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 13:31USFJohn Cannon 37 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 4:28USFKhafre Brown 84 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:03WKUMarkese Stepp 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:36USFByrum Brown 6 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WKU Elo 1628, USF Elo 1253 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WKU -17.4 (87% to win) — 4.4 points clear of WKU's market line of -13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USF | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.8 (#94) | CORE overall | -4.6 (#85) |
| -1 / +6 | offense / defense | +0 / +5 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 2.17 |
| 2.46 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →