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Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1New Mexico State over Liberty
4914 · on the road · 2022-11-26
+24+59.07%
2Charlotte over Rice
5623 · on the road · 2022-10-29
+15+48.017%
3South Carolina over #5Tennessee
6338 · at home · 2022-11-20
+22.5+47.58%
4Houston over East Carolina
423 · on the road · 2022-11-19
+6+45.035%
5Akron over Northern Illinois
4412 · on the road · 2022-11-26
+9.5+41.528%
6Middle Tennessee over #25Miami
4531 · on the road · 2022-09-24
+25.5+39.56%
7Old Dominion over Coastal Carolina
4921 · on the road · 2022-10-15
+11.5+39.524%
8North Texas over Western Kentucky
4013 · on the road · 2022-10-29
+10+37.027%
9Navy over Tulsa
5321 · at home · 2022-10-08
+4.5+36.539%
10TCU over #18Oklahoma
5524 · at home · 2022-10-01
+5+36.038%
11Weber State over Utah State
357 · on the road · 2022-09-10
+6.5+34.534%
12Duke over Miami
4521 · on the road · 2022-10-22
+10+34.027%
13Liberty over BYU
4114 · at home · 2022-10-22
+7+34.033%
14UTEP over Boise State
2710 · at home · 2022-09-24
+16.5+33.515%
15Middle Tennessee over Florida Atlantic
4921 · at home · 2022-11-19
+5.5+33.537%
16Florida International over Charlotte
3415 · on the road · 2022-10-22
+14+33.019%
17Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan
3910 · on the road · 2022-10-15
+3.5+32.541%
18Texas State over App State
3624 · at home · 2022-10-08
+19.5+31.511%
19#3Michigan over #2Ohio State
4523 · on the road · 2022-11-26
+9+31.029%
20Illinois over Wisconsin
3410 · on the road · 2022-10-01
+6.5+30.534%
21#23Kansas State over Baylor
313 · on the road · 2022-11-13
+2.5+30.544%
22Syracuse over Louisville
317 · at home · 2022-09-04
+6+30.035%
23Florida International over New Mexico State
217 · on the road · 2022-10-02
+16+30.016%
24Louisville over #10Wake Forest
4821 · at home · 2022-10-29
+3+30.043%
25Georgia State over Southern Miss
4214 · on the road · 2022-11-05
+2+30.045%
26Eastern Michigan over Arizona State
3021 · on the road · 2022-09-18
+20.5+29.510%
27Baylor over Texas Tech
4517 · on the road · 2022-10-29
+1.5+29.546%
28Temple over South Florida
5428 · at home · 2022-11-05
+3.5+29.541%
29Middle Tennessee over Colorado State
3419 · on the road · 2022-09-10
+13.5+28.520%
30UConn over Fresno State
1914 · at home · 2022-10-01
+23+28.08%
31Kansas over West Virginia
5542 · on the road · 2022-09-10
+14+27.019%
32Georgia Southern over Nebraska
4542 · on the road · 2022-09-10
+23.5+26.57%
33Kansas over Houston
4830 · on the road · 2022-09-17
+8.5+26.530%
34Georgia Tech over #24Pittsburgh
2621 · on the road · 2022-10-02
+21.5+26.59%
35Eastern Michigan over Western Michigan
4523 · on the road · 2022-10-08
+4.5+26.539%
36East Carolina over UCF
3413 · at home · 2022-10-22
+5.5+26.537%
37Nevada over Texas State
3814 · at home · 2022-09-03
+2+26.045%
38Arizona over #9UCLA
3428 · on the road · 2022-11-13
+20+26.011%
39#12Utah over #4USC
4724 · neutral site · 2022-12-03
+3+26.043%
40Marshall over #8Notre Dame
2621 · on the road · 2022-09-10
+20.5+25.510%
41Buffalo over Eastern Michigan
5031 · on the road · 2022-09-24
+6.5+25.534%
42Georgia State over Army
3114 · on the road · 2022-10-01
+8.5+25.530%
43Georgia Tech over #13North Carolina
2117 · on the road · 2022-11-19
+21+25.09%
44Texas A&M over #6LSU
3823 · at home · 2022-11-27
+10+25.027%
45Western Kentucky over South Alabama
4423 · neutral site · 2022-12-22
+4+25.040%
46Arizona over San Diego State
3820 · on the road · 2022-09-03
+6.5+24.534%
47Iowa over Purdue
243 · on the road · 2022-11-05
+3.5+24.541%
48Notre Dame over #5Clemson
3514 · at home · 2022-11-05
+3.5+24.541%
49Michigan State over #14Illinois
2315 · on the road · 2022-11-05
+16+24.016%
50Rice over Louisiana
3321 · at home · 2022-09-17
+11.5+23.524%
51Marshall over James Madison
2612 · on the road · 2022-10-22
+9.5+23.528%
52Ohio over Buffalo
4524 · at home · 2022-11-01
+2.5+23.544%
53Miami over Georgia Tech
3514 · on the road · 2022-11-12
+2+23.045%
54Colorado over California
2013 · at home · 2022-10-15
+15+22.017%
55Bowling Green over Central Michigan
3418 · on the road · 2022-10-22
+6+22.035%
56William & Mary over Charlotte
4124 · on the road · 2022-09-02
+4.5+21.539%
57Bowling Green over Toledo
4235 · on the road · 2022-11-16
+14.5+21.518%
58Texas Tech over #21Ole Miss
4225 · neutral site · 2022-12-29
+4.5+21.539%
59App State over #6Texas A&M
1714 · on the road · 2022-09-10
+18+21.013%
60Ohio over Western Michigan
3314 · on the road · 2022-10-15
+2+21.045%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.