Howard vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Howard

0023

Eastern Michigan

▸0033

Final

Rynearson Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
HOWA	0	9	14	0	23
EMU	16	14	0	3	33

HOWATeam statsEMU

398Total yards285

194Pass175

204Rush110

21First downs16

7-163rd down5-12

0Turnovers1

29:47Possession29:47

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:04EMUKenyon Bowyer 25 Yd Field Goal 23–33
• Q3 3:00HOWAKasey Hawthorne 23 Yd pass from Quinton Williams (Dylan West Kick)23–30
• Q3 8:20HOWAKasey Hawthorne 2 Yd Run (Dylan West Kick)16–30
• Q2 0:32HOWAAaron Bickerton 38 Yd Field Goal 9–30
• Q2 9:32EMUHamze El-Zayat 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)6–30
• Q2 9:45HOWAJamarr Ebron 69 Yd pass from Quinton Williams (Dylan West PAT blocked)6–23
• Q2 12:20EMUTanner Knue 20 Yd pass from Austin Smith (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)0–23
• Q1 2:07EMUJaylon Jackson 84 Yd Kickoff Return (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)0–16
• Q1 2:19EMUTeam Safety 0–9
• Q1 11:17EMUSamson Evans 2 Yd Run (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

EMU −20

Against the number

HOWA covered

line EMU −20

What the numbers say

• HOWA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and EMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 3.7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

EMU 100%50%HOWA 100%

Kickoff160 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

EMU (top)HOWA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: EMU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

EMU −20

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

HOWA 23 – 33 EMU

Leaders

Howard

• PassQuinton Williams 16/33, 194 YDS, 2 TD
• RushEden James 9 CAR, 96 YDS
• RecJamarr Ebron 2 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD

Eastern Michigan

• PassAustin Smith 19/28, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushSamson Evans 16 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
• RecTanner Knue 8 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

11.8sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

137

Points / snap

0.41

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

EMU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,295 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

81%

EMU went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WNorthern Illinois vs Boston College27-24WGeorgia State vs Rhode Island42-35WWestern Kentucky vs South Florida41-24LArmy vs UL Monroe13-17WFlorida State vs LSU45-24

Fourth downs

16 calls

HOWA gave up 2.2 points to the model on fourth down.HOWA 5/8 · EMU 5/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Howard vs. Eastern Michigan?

Howard 23, Eastern Michigan 33.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (EMU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

HOWA

EMU

39%

Success rate

45%

0.05

EPA / pass

0.17

0.28

EPA / rush

0.20

38%

Early-down success

43%

32%

Pass success

46%

47%

Rush success

43%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

5%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

52%

Pass rate

48%

7.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

3.7

HOWA

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

79 scrimmage snaps

EMU

3.7 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

HOWA		EMU
398	Total yards	285
194	Passing yards	175
204	Rushing yards	110
21	First downs	16
7-16	3rd down	5-12
1-5	4th down	2-2
16/33	Comp/Att	19/28
5.9	Yards per pass	6.3
4.9	Yards per rush	3.7
0	Turnovers	1
11-59	Penalties	6-79
29:47	Possession	29:47

Fourth downs

16 calls

HOWA

5/8 with the model

−2.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

EMU

5/7 with the model

−2.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 2:19 HOWA go for it on 4th & 15 at HOWA 5. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.45 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

HOWA 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →EMU 3/10 scoring drives

HOWATD7 pl, 80 yds· own 47Q0

HOWAPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

EMUTD6 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ1

HOWADOWNS6 pl, 63 yds· own 16Q1

EMUPUNT9 pl, 29 yds· own 21Q1

HOWASAF4 pl, -10 yds· own 10Q1

HOWAPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

EMUTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

HOWATD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

HOWADOWNS11 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q2

EMUINT6 pl, 17 yds· own 30Q2

HOWAFG12 pl, 44 yds· own 35Q2

EMUEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 29Q2

EMUUncateg5 pl, 17 yds· own 33Q3

EMUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3

HOWATD9 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3

EMUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 27Q3

HOWAPUNT10 pl, 26 yds· own 17Q3

EMUFG13 pl, 73 yds· own 20Q4

HOWADOWNS6 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4

EMUEND4 pl, 12 yds· opp 31Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:04EMUKenyon Bowyer 25 Yd Field Goal 23–33
• Q3 3:00HOWAKasey Hawthorne 23 Yd pass from Quinton Williams (Dylan West Kick)23–30
• Q3 8:20HOWAKasey Hawthorne 2 Yd Run (Dylan West Kick)16–30
• Q2 0:32HOWAAaron Bickerton 38 Yd Field Goal 9–30
• Q2 9:32EMUHamze El-Zayat 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)6–30
• Q2 9:45HOWAJamarr Ebron 69 Yd pass from Quinton Williams (Dylan West PAT blocked)6–23
• Q2 12:20EMUTanner Knue 20 Yd pass from Austin Smith (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)0–23
• Q1 2:07EMUJaylon Jackson 84 Yd Kickoff Return (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)0–16
• Q1 2:19EMUTeam Safety 0–9
• Q1 11:17EMUSamson Evans 2 Yd Run (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →