Army vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsULM
- Q4 2:48ULMTyrone Howell 9 Yd pass from Hunter Herring (Derek McCormick Kick)13–17
- Q4 5:43ULMHunter Smith 62 Yd Run (Derek McCormick Kick)13–10
- Q4 12:53ARMYQuinn Maretzki 28 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q2 0:07ARMYQuinn Maretzki 22 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 2:38ARMYBo Nicolas-Paul 44 Yd Interception Return (Quinn Maretzki Kick)7–3
- Q2 6:20ULMDerek McCormick 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ULM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARMY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 5.8
- PassBryson Daily 5/11, 121 YDS, 2 INT
- RushBryson Daily 23 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecLiam Fortner 1 REC, 53 YDS
- PassJiya Wright 11/22, 69 YDS, 2 INT
- RushHunter Smith 7 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyrone Howell 9 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARMY up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,298 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:48ULM +62%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 9 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)
- Q4 5:43ULM +31%
Hunter Smith run for 62 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)
- Q2 2:38ARMY +21%
Bo Nicolas-Paul 44 Yd Interception Return (Quinn Maretzki Kick)
- Q4 2:48ARMY +20%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ARMY 25
- Q4 2:15ULM +20%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the ARMY 16
- Q4 4:48ARMY +19%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Ay'Jaun Marshall for 20 yds Ay'Jaun Marshall fumbled, recovered by ULM Car'lin Vigers
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. UL Monroe?
Army 13, UL Monroe 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARMY | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 279 | Total yards | 298 |
| 107 | Passing yards | 91 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 207 |
| 13 | First downs | 15 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 6/12 | Comp/Att | 15/31 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 2.9 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 35:43 | Possession | 24:17 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:40 ARMY punt on 4th & 1 at ULM 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:48ULMTyrone Howell 9 Yd pass from Hunter Herring (Derek McCormick Kick)13–17
- Q4 5:43ULMHunter Smith 62 Yd Run (Derek McCormick Kick)13–10
- Q4 12:53ARMYQuinn Maretzki 28 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q2 0:07ARMYQuinn Maretzki 22 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 2:38ARMYBo Nicolas-Paul 44 Yd Interception Return (Quinn Maretzki Kick)7–3
- Q2 6:20ULMDerek McCormick 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 1244, ARMY Elo 1499 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +7.8 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#98 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #42 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| ARMY | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.8 (#111) | CORE overall | -22.7 (#129) |
| -7 / +9 | offense / defense | -17 / +6 |
| 1.59 | points / drive | 1.16 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 2.88 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 41% |
| -25 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →