California vs. Stanford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsSTAN
- Q4 10:01STANE. Brown pass to CJ Williams for 34 yds, for a TD (E. Kenney KICK)10–31
- Q4 14:56STANM. Ford run for 4 yds, for a TD (E. Kenney KICK)10–24
- Q3 2:19STANE. Kenney 36 yd FG GOOD10–17
- Q2 1:05STANK. Raphael run for 11 yds, K. Raphael fumbled, forced by J. Galvan, recovered by D. Davis, D. Davis returned for a TD (E. Kenney KICK)10–14
- Q2 4:38CALJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 7 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:57STANJay Green 49 Yd Fumble Return (Emmet Kenney Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:10CALAbram Murray 40 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 33/49, 269 YDS
- RushKendrick Raphael 15 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecTrond Grizzell 9 REC, 104 YDS
- PassElijah Brown 10/20, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMicah Ford 29 CAR, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCJ Williams 5 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSTAN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:05STAN +23%
Shotgun #1 K.Raphael rush left for 11 yards gain to the CAL17 fumbled by #1 K.Raphael at CAL14 forced by #0 J.Galvan recovered by STAN #29 D.Davis at CAL17 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 4:38CAL +22%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 7 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)
- Q4 14:56STAN +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 14:46CAL +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Raphael rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CAL10 (#35 M.Rose)
- Q3 2:19STAN +12%
#13 E.Kenney field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD
- Q3 4:37STAN +9%
#20 M.Ford rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CAL35 (#10 J.Wayne), 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Stanford?
California 10, Stanford 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CAL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CAL | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 297 | Total yards | 282 |
| 285 | Passing yards | 123 |
| 12 | Rushing yards | 159 |
| 15 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 34/50 | Comp/Att | 10/20 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 0.5 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 13-123 | Penalties | 6-30 |
| 33:40 | Possession | 26:20 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:01 CAL punt on 4th & 1 at CAL 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:01STANE. Brown pass to CJ Williams for 34 yds, for a TD (E. Kenney KICK)10–31
- Q4 14:56STANM. Ford run for 4 yds, for a TD (E. Kenney KICK)10–24
- Q3 2:19STANE. Kenney 36 yd FG GOOD10–17
- Q2 1:05STANK. Raphael run for 11 yds, K. Raphael fumbled, forced by J. Galvan, recovered by D. Davis, D. Davis returned for a TD (E. Kenney KICK)10–14
- Q2 4:38CALJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 7 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:57STANJay Green 49 Yd Fumble Return (Emmet Kenney Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:10CALAbram Murray 40 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (STAN Elo 1246, CAL Elo 1420 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects STAN +4.6 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#35 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #80 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Stanford leads 54–45–6 · 45% have been one-possession games
| CAL | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.6 (#85) | CORE overall | -12.6 (#102) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | -11 / +1 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →