Holy Cross vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Holy Cross
Boston College0-1
▸Final
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
HOLYTeam statsBC
394Total yards403
130Pass201
264Rush202
21First downs24
4-93rd down7-13
1Turnovers0
28:31Possession31:29
- Q4 7:26HOLYJordan Fuller 15 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)28–31
- Q4 14:55BCJeremiah Franklin 5 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)21–31
- Q3 12:40HOLYMatthew Sluka 8 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:01BCLiam Connor 37 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q2 0:46HOLYMatthew Sluka 8 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)14–21
- Q2 1:23BCGeorge Takacs 2 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:06BCRyan O'Keefe 14 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:56HOLYJordan Fuller 2 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:49BCKye Robichaux 3 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
BC −10
Against the number
HOLY covered
line BC −10
What the numbers say
- HOLY played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 6.6
Kickoff146 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
BC (top)HOLY (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BC 100%
Closing line
BC −10
Closing total
52.5
Model line
—
Actual result
HOLY 28 – 31 BC
Holy Cross
- PassMatthew Sluka 10/15, 130 YDS
- RushMatthew Sluka 19 CAR, 131 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJalen Coker 5 REC, 53 YDS
Boston College
- PassThomas Castellanos 17/23, 201 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKye Robichaux 19 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Williams 2 REC, 70 YDS
27.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
131
Points / snap
0.45
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
BC went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Holy Cross vs. Boston College?
Holy Cross 28, Boston College 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BC) was correct.
HOLY
BC
48%
Success rate
54%
0.42
EPA / pass
0.54
0.38
EPA / rush
0.26
48%
Early-down success
53%
44%
Pass success
59%
49%
Rush success
51%
20%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
22%
Stuffed rush rate
18%
31%
Pass rate
38%
8.7
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.6
HOLY
8.7 yards to go on 3rd down
59 scrimmage snaps
BC
6.6 yards to go on 3rd down
72 scrimmage snaps
| HOLY | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 394 | Total yards | 403 |
| 130 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 264 | Rushing yards | 202 |
| 21 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-9 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 10/15 | Comp/Att | 17/23 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 6.8 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-99 | Penalties | 10-109 |
| 28:31 | Possession | 31:29 |
HOLY
5/5 with the model
nothing given up
BC
4/4 with the model
nothing given up
No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishHOLY 4/8 scoring drives← own end zone →BC 5/9 scoring drives
BCTD14 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1
HOLYTD15 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
BCTD14 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q2
HOLYPUNT6 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q2
BCTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
HOLYTD4 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ2
BCFG5 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q2
HOLYTD5 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3
BCPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
HOLYPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q3
BCPUNT6 pl, 32 yds· own 15Q3
HOLYPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 13Q3
BCTD6 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q3
HOLYTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
BCPUNT9 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q4
HOLYFUM4 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q4
BCEND3 pl, -4 yds· own 33Q4
- Q4 7:26HOLYJordan Fuller 15 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)28–31
- Q4 14:55BCJeremiah Franklin 5 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)21–31
- Q3 12:40HOLYMatthew Sluka 8 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:01BCLiam Connor 37 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q2 0:46HOLYMatthew Sluka 8 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)14–21
- Q2 1:23BCGeorge Takacs 2 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:06BCRyan O'Keefe 14 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:56HOLYJordan Fuller 2 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:49BCKye Robichaux 3 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →