Merrimack vs. Holy Cross: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Merrimack

0020

Holy Cross

▸0042

Final

Fitton Field

	1	2	3	4	T
MERR	3	14	3	0	20
HOLY	7	7	14	14	42

MERRTeam statsHOLY

351Total yards432

176Pass190

175Rush242

27First downs22

7-153rd down4-6

0Turnovers1

38:32Possession21:28

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:00HOLYJordan Fuller 28 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)20–42
• Q4 8:11HOLYJordan Fuller 2 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)20–35
• Q3 0:00HOLYJordan Fuller 1 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)20–28
• Q3 3:48MERRLliam Davis 22 Yd Field Goal 20–21
• Q3 8:34HOLYJordan Fuller 2 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)17–21
• Q2 1:32MERRGavin McCusker 5 Yd Run (Lliam Davis Kick)17–14
• Q2 9:30HOLYJordan Fuller 14 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Luis Palenzuela Kick)10–14
• Q2 12:48MERRTyvon Edmonds Jr. 1 Yd Run (Lliam Davis Kick)10–7
• Q1 0:50HOLYJalen Coker 29 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Luis Palenzuela Kick)3–7
• Q1 4:39MERRLliam Davis 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0

What the numbers say

• MERR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HOLY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 3.0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

HOLY 100%50%MERR 100%

Kickoff90 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

HOLY (top)MERR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: HOLY 100%

Leaders

Merrimack

• PassGavin McCusker 15/30, 176 YDS
• RushTyvon Edmonds Jr. 25 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJelani Mason 4 REC, 63 YDS

Holy Cross

• PassMatthew Sluka 9/14, 190 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushJordan Fuller 13 CAR, 120 YDS, 4 TD
• RecJalen Coker 4 REC, 136 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

42.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

82

Points / snap

0.76

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MERR up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,456 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

61%

MERR went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LPurdue vs Fresno State35-39LRichmond vs Morgan State10-17WBoston College vs Holy Cross31-28LNorth Texas vs Florida International39-48LEast Carolina vs Marshall13-31

Fourth downs

9 calls

MERR gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.MERR 4/5 · HOLY 2/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Merrimack vs. Holy Cross?

Merrimack 20, Holy Cross 42.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (HOLY) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MERR

HOLY

42%

Success rate

78%

0.03

EPA / pass

0.41

0.25

EPA / rush

0.83

40%

Early-down success

79%

22%

Pass success

67%

59%

Rush success

85%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

22%

7%

Stuffed rush rate

0%

46%

Pass rate

38%

7.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

3.0

MERR

7.5 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

HOLY

3.0 yards to go on 3rd down

32 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MERR		HOLY
351	Total yards	432
176	Passing yards	190
175	Rushing yards	242
27	First downs	22
7-15	3rd down	4-6
1-2	4th down	0-1
15/30	Comp/Att	9/14
5.9	Yards per pass	13.6
3.6	Yards per rush	7.1
0	Turnovers	1
8-94	Penalties	6-55
38:32	Possession	21:28

Fourth downs

9 calls

MERR

4/5 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

HOLY

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 3:48 MERR field goal on 4th & 5 at HOLY 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.07 points.

Every call, priced (9)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MERR 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →HOLY 6/9 scoring drives

HOLYDOWNS6 pl, 64 yds· own 19Q1

MERRPUNT6 pl, 35 yds· own 17Q1

HOLYPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 19Q1

MERRFG7 pl, 26 yds· opp 43Q1

HOLYTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MERRTD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

HOLYINT5 pl, 26 yds· own 30Q2

HOLYTD6 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

MERRTD15 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

MERREND2 pl, 5 yds· own 33Q2

HOLYTD6 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3

MERRPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 6Q3

MERRFG13 pl, 60 yds· own 35Q3

HOLYTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

HOLYTD5 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q4

MERRMISS11 pl, 41 yds· own 25Q4

MERRDOWNS13 pl, 27 yds· own 26Q4

HOLYTD3 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q4

MERRUncateg6 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:00HOLYJordan Fuller 28 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)20–42
• Q4 8:11HOLYJordan Fuller 2 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)20–35
• Q3 0:00HOLYJordan Fuller 1 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)20–28
• Q3 3:48MERRLliam Davis 22 Yd Field Goal 20–21
• Q3 8:34HOLYJordan Fuller 2 Yd Run (Luis Palenzuela Kick)17–21
• Q2 1:32MERRGavin McCusker 5 Yd Run (Lliam Davis Kick)17–14
• Q2 9:30HOLYJordan Fuller 14 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Luis Palenzuela Kick)10–14
• Q2 12:48MERRTyvon Edmonds Jr. 1 Yd Run (Lliam Davis Kick)10–7
• Q1 0:50HOLYJalen Coker 29 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Luis Palenzuela Kick)3–7
• Q1 4:39MERRLliam Davis 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →