Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+27.0%

Mississippi State

Least

−36.9%

Army

Spread

63.9%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

112 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.26(r² = 0.07)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±37%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 2

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	Mississippi State	SEC	78.1	51.1	+27.0	+31.5	23	-1.0	-23.7
2	Purdue	Big Ten	67.1	49.0	+18.1	+16.9	24	+0.4	-11.1
3	Nevada	Mountain West	62.6	45.1	+17.5	+20.3	28	+4.2	-35.3
4	Florida	SEC	60.6	45.2	+15.3	+16.0	18	-1.1	-25.0
5	Troy	Sun Belt	65.9	50.6	+15.3	+15.0	21	-2.4	-30.0
6	USC	Pac-12	62.9	48.5	+14.4	+13.8	33	+1.7	-15.0
7	Clemson	ACC	59.1	47.4	+11.7	+12.0	14	-4.4	-32.3
8	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	65.7	54.9	+10.9	+11.6	31	+6.0	+8.6
9	Alabama	SEC	53.5	43.5	+10.0	+10.2	18	-4.8	-42.9
10	San José State	Mountain West	56.7	46.9	+9.8	+8.0	23	-6.9	-44.4
11	Fresno State	Mountain West	59.0	49.3	+9.7	+10.3	28	+8.5	-15.0
12	West Virginia	Big 12	58.0	49.1	+8.8	+11.3	21	+0.9	-23.5
13	Pittsburgh	ACC	57.0	48.3	+8.7	+7.7	15	-3.0	-44.4
14	BYU	FBS Independents	55.2	47.0	+8.2	+10.2	44	+7.1	-21.4
15	Indiana	Big Ten	54.9	47.0	+7.8	+8.3	19	+0.4	-26.9
16	LSU	SEC	57.3	49.9	+7.3	+7.5	15	-4.5	-53.7
17	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	58.2	51.0	+7.2	+7.8	33	+4.8	-7.7
18	Boston College	ACC	55.9	49.4	+6.6	+6.6	19	+0.4	-16.7
19	Michigan	Big Ten	59.0	52.5	+6.5	+7.9	18	-4.2	-31.3
20	Stanford	Pac-12	55.8	49.6	+6.1	+4.1	18	-5.3	-9.5
21	Hawai'i	Mountain West	53.0	47.1	+5.9	+6.5	14	-2.3	-25.8
22	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	51.5	45.9	+5.6	+5.8	30	-0.1	-24.0
23	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	55.9	50.4	+5.5	+7.5	17	-1.3	-39.4
24	Boise State	Mountain West	52.5	47.0	+5.5	+3.6	16	+1.0	-55.0
25	SMU	American Athletic	54.7	49.3	+5.4	+5.5	24	+3.4	-6.7
26	Texas Tech	Big 12	56.9	51.7	+5.2	+6.9	24	+1.0	-25.0
27	UCF	American Athletic	50.9	46.3	+4.7	+5.9	30	+11.8	-7.4
28	Toledo	Mid-American	52.4	47.8	+4.6	+4.4	34	+11.7	-5.0
29	Memphis	American Athletic	55.0	50.5	+4.5	+3.9	27	+5.7	-17.1
30	Virginia	ACC	54.1	49.6	+4.5	+5.8	27	-2.6	-23.1
31	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	53.6	49.2	+4.3	+6.7	24	+0.6	-23.3
32	Oklahoma	Big 12	49.9	45.6	+4.3	+2.7	11	-5.9	-51.8
33	Miami	ACC	52.4	48.1	+4.3	+6.1	19	+1.1	-32.4
34	Syracuse	ACC	58.9	54.6	+4.3	+4.3	16	-3.2	-34.2
35	Cincinnati	American Athletic	49.2	45.2	+4.0	+6.8	20	-0.2	-34.5
36	Texas State	Sun Belt	56.1	52.7	+3.5	+5.6	24	+2.9	-9.1
37	Texas	Big 12	52.6	49.4	+3.2	+2.1	14	-0.0	-42.3
38	Georgia	SEC	51.1	47.9	+3.1	+2.1	19	-4.3	-40.6
39	NC State	ACC	50.5	47.5	+3.0	+3.4	12	-1.9	-47.2
40	East Carolina	American Athletic	52.4	49.6	+2.8	+0.3	23	+1.3	-19.4
41	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	53.5	50.7	+2.8	+2.9	15	-6.7	-50.0
42	Baylor	Big 12	57.3	54.5	+2.7	+3.1	23	+0.7	-20.0
43	Auburn	SEC	52.5	50.0	+2.5	+0.7	15	-7.2	-44.2
44	Ball State	Mid-American	47.0	44.7	+2.3	+1.7	23	+2.7	-31.0
45	Duke	ACC	54.1	51.9	+2.2	+3.1	23	+0.5	-19.4
46	Houston	American Athletic	52.7	50.6	+2.1	+2.0	29	-0.6	-5.6
47	Texas A&M	SEC	47.1	45.1	+2.0	+0.1	13	-4.0	-50.0
48	Oregon	Pac-12	47.8	45.9	+1.9	+2.9	14	-4.6	-50.0
49	Missouri	SEC	50.8	49.0	+1.8	+0.6	21	-2.5	-40.6
50	Iowa	Big Ten	48.8	47.3	+1.5	+1.5	12	-4.6	-27.3
51	North Carolina	ACC	49.4	48.1	+1.3	+2.1	29	+1.9	-14.7
52	Arkansas	SEC	48.2	47.4	+0.9	+1.1	12	-3.5	-43.3
53	Iowa State	Big 12	47.5	46.9	+0.5	-0.4	19	-5.3	-46.5
54	Michigan State	Big Ten	53.8	53.3	+0.4	+0.1	16	-5.7	-34.6
55	South Florida	American Athletic	53.0	52.7	+0.3	+1.9	24	+2.3	+15.4
56	Wake Forest	ACC	50.5	50.4	+0.1	-2.1	25	+1.6	-11.8
57	Tulsa	American Athletic	50.1	50.3	-0.3	-3.2	24	+4.4	-25.0
58	Temple	American Athletic	51.6	51.9	-0.3	-0.9	21	+1.5	-31.0
59	Utah	Pac-12	48.2	48.8	-0.6	-2.6	30	-1.6	-25.0
60	Liberty	FBS Independents	43.6	44.2	-0.7	+1.4	32	+7.4	-24.0
61	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	54.7	55.8	-1.1	-0.2	27	+6.5	+4.2
62	South Alabama	Sun Belt	49.1	50.4	-1.3	-1.9	36	+9.0	+3.9
63	Marshall	Conference USA	47.5	48.8	-1.3	+0.9	29	-0.8	-28.1
64	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	44.9	46.4	-1.5	-1.8	19	+3.5	-40.9
65	South Carolina	SEC	49.4	50.9	-1.5	-3.4	22	-3.6	-9.4
66	Southern Miss	Conference USA	47.8	49.3	-1.5	-2.8	22	-1.0	-22.6
67	Ohio State	Big Ten	42.6	44.1	-1.6	-0.2	20	+5.3	-38.9
68	UNLV	Mountain West	54.3	56.5	-2.2	-2.8	29	+1.5	-14.8
69	Northwestern	Big Ten	45.0	47.3	-2.3	-1.9	32	+7.6	-19.6
70	Ole Miss	SEC	45.7	48.1	-2.4	+0.3	49	+16.1	+6.8
71	Charlotte	Conference USA	48.4	50.9	-2.4	-1.3	19	+2.9	-15.8
72	UTSA	Conference USA	47.3	50.2	-2.9	-2.4	22	-0.6	-19.1
73	Wisconsin	Big Ten	46.9	49.8	-2.9	-4.7	23	-4.3	-38.7
74	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	40.2	43.1	-2.9	-1.8	29	+1.8	-32.4
75	Oregon State	Pac-12	50.2	53.2	-3.0	-3.4	35	+4.6	-3.2
76	Georgia State	Sun Belt	43.9	47.0	-3.1	-2.8	15	-2.0	-47.1
77	Oklahoma State	Big 12	45.1	48.2	-3.1	-0.5	7	-6.6	-48.4
78	North Texas	Conference USA	46.2	49.4	-3.2	-3.0	28	+3.5	-28.9
79	Florida State	ACC	50.0	53.2	-3.2	-2.6	31	+6.6	-10.0
80	Kansas State	Big 12	45.2	48.6	-3.3	-4.1	12	-6.2	-39.4
81	Rutgers	Big Ten	50.0	53.4	-3.4	-2.6	26	+5.3	-28.2
82	Louisiana	Sun Belt	43.5	47.0	-3.5	-2.1	31	+11.4	-25.8
83	Penn State	Big Ten	45.9	49.6	-3.7	-2.5	30	+4.6	-12.5
84	Tennessee	SEC	47.9	51.6	-3.8	-5.4	22	+1.0	-28.6
85	Vanderbilt	SEC	50.6	54.4	-3.9	-5.9	20	-0.3	-32.4
86	Nebraska	Big Ten	43.5	47.5	-4.0	-2.5	18	+0.5	-44.4
87	New Mexico	Mountain West	45.4	49.6	-4.2	-3.7	15	-3.7	-46.4
88	Louisville	ACC	47.2	51.5	-4.3	-4.2	34	+13.4	+0.0
89	Kansas	Big 12	53.1	57.8	-4.7	-4.9	21	+3.2	-3.0
90	Tulane	American Athletic	43.9	48.7	-4.8	-4.3	23	+1.5	-13.6
91	Minnesota	Big Ten	39.9	45.1	-5.3	-5.5	28	+8.0	-16.7
92	Western Michigan	Mid-American	42.6	48.0	-5.4	-5.6	21	-4.3	-21.4
93	TCU	Big 12	44.5	50.0	-5.5	-7.1	16	-1.2	-22.9
94	UAB	Conference USA	41.4	47.1	-5.7	-8.9	12	-3.1	-38.1
95	Colorado	Pac-12	40.4	46.4	-6.0	-6.5	14	-11.2	-52.0
96	Georgia Tech	ACC	46.1	52.4	-6.3	-5.4	29	+4.4	-2.7
97	Central Michigan	Mid-American	44.0	50.3	-6.3	-4.6	29	+2.4	-31.4
98	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	43.1	50.1	-7.0	-8.2	28	+6.3	+0.0
99	UTEP	Conference USA	46.0	53.0	-7.0	-8.1	18	-3.5	-37.5
100	UCLA	Pac-12	42.1	49.3	-7.1	-7.9	33	+5.2	-22.7
101	Kentucky	SEC	39.4	46.8	-7.4	-8.6	19	-1.1	-32.5
102	Rice	Conference USA	44.1	51.9	-7.8	-8.9	26	-1.6	-30.4
103	App State	Sun Belt	40.2	48.1	-7.8	-7.3	22	+0.8	-20.7
104	San Diego State	Mountain West	41.5	50.4	-8.9	-8.3	25	-1.7	-22.6
105	Virginia Tech	ACC	38.6	47.9	-9.3	-9.8	14	-5.4	-41.0
106	Buffalo	Mid-American	36.5	46.3	-9.8	-8.7	38	+7.5	-13.3
107	Illinois	Big Ten	39.6	51.2	-11.5	-13.6	26	+1.8	-8.3
108	Wyoming	Mountain West	38.2	51.4	-13.2	-14.6	20	-4.2	-27.6
109	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	23.6	46.3	-22.7	-21.4	19	+0.0	-40.5
110	Air Force	Mountain West	18.9	47.3	-28.4	-28.3	21	+0.1	-37.5
111	Navy	American Athletic	23.2	52.3	-29.0	-26.5	30	+4.3	-7.9
112	Army	FBS Independents	10.3	47.3	-36.9	-35.9	33	+7.3	-9.1

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,690 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-13.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	24%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	72%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.