North Texas vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsFIU
- Q4 7:09FIUKejon Owens 6 Yd Run (Keyone Jenkins Run for Two-Point Conversion)39–46
- Q4 10:03UNTChandler Rogers 23 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)39–38
- Q4 11:18UNTDamon Ward 10 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–38
- Q3 1:02FIUKris Mitchell 8 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Chase Gabriel Kick)27–38
- Q3 4:37FIUKejon Owens 47 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)27–31
- Q3 9:26UNTJa'Mori Maclin 8 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)27–24
- Q3 11:31FIUKejon Owens 21 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)20–24
- Q2 1:08UNTNoah Rauschenberg 49 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 4:12UNTOscar Adaway III 6 Yd Run (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)17–17
- Q2 6:50FIUChase Gabriel 31 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 13:47FIUHezekiah Masses 40 Yd Interception Return (Chase Gabriel Kick)10–14
- Q1 1:44UNTNoah Rauschenberg 47 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:39FIUShomari Lawrence 28 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:50UNTTrey Cleveland 25 Yd pass from Stone Earle (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassChandler Rogers 11/15, 201 YDS, 2 TD
- RushStone Earle 8 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecDamon Ward Jr. 4 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKeyone Jenkins 20/32, 291 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushKejon Owens 10 CAR, 101 YDS, 3 TD
- RecKris Mitchell 7 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:09FIU +91%
Kejon Owens 6 Yd Run (Keyone Jenkins Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 4:37FIU +38%
Kejon Owens run for 47 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)
- Q4 10:03UNT +35%
Chandler Rogers 23 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- Q2 4:12UNT +30%
Oscar Adaway III 6 Yd Run (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)
- Q4 0:00UNT +28%
Chandler Rogers run for 6 yds to the FIU 24
- Q3 1:02FIU +26%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 8 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Florida International?
North Texas 39, Florida International 46.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNT | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 548 | Total yards | 514 |
| 301 | Passing yards | 291 |
| 247 | Rushing yards | 223 |
| 26 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 21/35 | Comp/Att | 20/32 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 32:16 | Possession | 27:44 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:09FIUKejon Owens 6 Yd Run (Keyone Jenkins Run for Two-Point Conversion)39–46
- Q4 10:03UNTChandler Rogers 23 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)39–38
- Q4 11:18UNTDamon Ward 10 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–38
- Q3 1:02FIUKris Mitchell 8 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Chase Gabriel Kick)27–38
- Q3 4:37FIUKejon Owens 47 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)27–31
- Q3 9:26UNTJa'Mori Maclin 8 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)27–24
- Q3 11:31FIUKejon Owens 21 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)20–24
- Q2 1:08UNTNoah Rauschenberg 49 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 4:12UNTOscar Adaway III 6 Yd Run (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)17–17
- Q2 6:50FIUChase Gabriel 31 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 13:47FIUHezekiah Masses 40 Yd Interception Return (Chase Gabriel Kick)10–14
- Q1 1:44UNTNoah Rauschenberg 47 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:39FIUShomari Lawrence 28 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:50UNTTrey Cleveland 25 Yd pass from Stone Earle (Noah Rauschenberg Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1074, UNT Elo 1357 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU +8.9 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#69 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #31 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Florida International leads 6–5 · 45% have been one-possession games
| UNT | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.4 (#104) | CORE overall | -20.9 (#127) |
| +3 / +16 | offense / defense | -12 / +9 |
| 2.84 | points / drive | 1.35 |
| 3.15 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →