Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+32.4%

Washington State

Least

−32.9%

Navy

Spread

65.3%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

130 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.23(r² = 0.05)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±33%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 2

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	Washington State	Pac-12	80.8	48.5	+32.4	+34.6	31	+4.7	-18.2
2	San José State	Mountain West	66.0	48.9	+17.2	+17.2	19	-2.7	-30.0
3	Hawai'i	Mountain West	63.1	46.5	+16.6	+19.6	35	+11.1	-6.5
4	LSU	SEC	59.4	43.4	+16.0	+17.8	14	-7.1	-53.1
5	Troy	Sun Belt	62.5	47.4	+15.1	+16.3	21	+2.9	-34.4
6	USC	Pac-12	61.3	46.8	+14.5	+14.8	11	-5.7	-50.0
7	Purdue	Big Ten	65.4	51.7	+13.7	+14.1	15	-5.3	-39.1
8	Florida	SEC	59.7	47.3	+12.4	+14.3	28	+0.9	-38.6
9	Texas Tech	Big 12	60.1	49.2	+10.9	+13.2	24	+1.5	-27.1
10	Alabama	SEC	56.0	45.2	+10.8	+12.1	19	-3.2	-36.4
11	Virginia	ACC	59.9	49.7	+10.2	+11.5	16	-4.0	-33.3
12	Texas State	Sun Belt	64.3	54.2	+10.1	+12.6	13	-8.6	-50.0
13	Indiana	Big Ten	56.5	47.0	+9.5	+11.6	14	-3.6	-47.4
14	Liberty	FBS Independents	56.6	47.3	+9.3	+9.8	11	-2.1	-23.1
15	Iowa State	Big 12	58.3	49.6	+8.7	+8.5	22	-0.4	-28.9
16	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	56.0	47.3	+8.7	+12.0	26	+0.5	-21.1
17	Stanford	Pac-12	58.5	49.9	+8.6	+9.7	13	-6.0	-47.9
18	West Virginia	Big 12	60.9	52.3	+8.6	+9.7	19	+3.3	-21.1
19	Pittsburgh	ACC	57.5	49.2	+8.3	+7.9	13	-5.7	-40.8
20	Utah State	Mountain West	55.1	47.4	+7.7	+8.3	10	-5.6	-57.1
21	Akron	Mid-American	64.4	56.8	+7.7	+9.3	19	-1.8	-5.6
22	New Mexico State	FBS Independents	60.7	53.3	+7.4	+7.4	21	-3.0	-13.9
23	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	55.2	47.9	+7.3	+8.2	13	-4.3	-28.1
24	Miami	ACC	59.4	52.1	+7.2	+9.3	23	+0.2	-19.1
25	Clemson	ACC	53.9	47.2	+6.7	+6.3	7	-8.1	-64.3
26	Texas A&M	SEC	56.2	49.6	+6.6	+7.6	8	-7.4	-48.0
27	Colorado State	Mountain West	57.3	50.9	+6.3	+3.8	24	+0.4	-13.3
28	North Texas	Conference USA	58.5	52.3	+6.2	+4.4	28	+2.2	-9.6
29	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	55.8	49.6	+6.2	+7.5	21	-0.6	-29.5
30	NC State	ACC	56.6	50.5	+6.1	+6.4	26	+1.0	-10.0
31	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	55.8	49.7	+6.1	+6.0	22	+1.3	-28.2
32	Nevada	Mountain West	57.3	51.3	+5.9	+6.5	20	+0.9	-18.2
33	Iowa	Big Ten	51.5	45.7	+5.8	+5.6	17	-3.0	-36.2
34	Oregon	Pac-12	50.8	45.5	+5.3	+3.4	18	-1.3	-41.5
35	South Carolina	SEC	58.4	53.2	+5.3	+3.2	21	-0.7	-29.8
36	BYU	FBS Independents	54.2	49.1	+5.1	+5.6	15	-4.7	-41.0
37	Temple	American Athletic	52.4	47.3	+5.0	+4.7	29	+1.3	-21.6
38	Central Michigan	Mid-American	54.0	49.0	+5.0	+6.5	24	-5.8	-34.2
39	SMU	American Athletic	51.5	46.6	+4.9	+3.6	26	+5.7	-25.5
40	Washington	Pac-12	52.5	47.9	+4.5	+4.5	31	+2.3	-17.0
41	Florida State	ACC	53.6	49.1	+4.5	+4.9	17	-3.9	-42.9
42	Texas	Big 12	54.6	50.2	+4.4	+4.3	22	+0.2	-33.3
43	Fresno State	Mountain West	52.2	48.0	+4.2	+1.7	15	-8.1	-38.5
44	Southern Miss	Conference USA	53.8	49.7	+4.1	+2.9	19	-1.5	-28.6
45	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	51.6	47.6	+4.0	+4.4	21	-3.0	-34.7
46	Arkansas	SEC	57.5	53.5	+4.0	+2.6	17	-3.9	-29.4
47	Baylor	Big 12	53.2	49.4	+3.9	+3.3	12	-1.0	-46.0
48	UCF	American Athletic	51.1	47.3	+3.8	+6.3	28	+11.4	+5.6
49	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	50.9	47.2	+3.8	+4.7	16	+6.1	-13.9
50	Oregon State	Pac-12	53.2	49.6	+3.5	+3.7	26	+8.8	-13.2
51	Memphis	American Athletic	49.8	46.3	+3.5	+2.4	28	+7.5	-14.7
52	Michigan State	Big Ten	52.3	48.9	+3.4	+1.3	20	-1.6	-27.8
53	East Carolina	American Athletic	55.3	52.0	+3.2	+0.1	8	-7.1	-29.0
54	Boise State	Mountain West	50.1	47.1	+3.0	+2.5	17	+1.4	-35.5
55	UConn	American Athletic	56.1	53.5	+2.6	+3.4	15	-2.7	-17.6
56	Colorado	Pac-12	51.8	49.7	+2.1	+0.9	18	-3.4	-32.6
57	Arizona State	Pac-12	50.7	48.9	+1.8	+1.5	14	-3.6	-46.8
58	Vanderbilt	SEC	54.1	52.8	+1.3	-0.4	11	-3.5	-28.6
59	California	Pac-12	49.3	48.2	+1.1	+1.1	16	-2.3	-32.6
60	Syracuse	ACC	52.1	51.0	+1.0	+0.8	17	-2.4	-21.6
61	North Carolina	ACC	51.2	50.2	+1.0	+1.5	19	-0.1	-26.2
62	Michigan	Big Ten	48.6	48.2	+0.4	-0.3	24	+1.0	-22.2
63	Western Michigan	Mid-American	49.3	48.9	+0.3	+0.7	27	+5.3	-14.3
64	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	49.9	49.6	+0.3	-0.7	28	+3.7	-12.8
65	Arizona	Pac-12	51.9	51.9	+0.0	+0.1	13	-5.4	-47.1
66	Maryland	Big Ten	51.6	51.7	-0.1	-1.1	25	+1.9	-21.6
67	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	49.8	50.1	-0.3	-0.6	16	-0.4	-25.0
68	Georgia	SEC	46.4	46.7	-0.3	-3.7	8	-5.8	-48.5
69	Tulsa	American Athletic	50.6	50.9	-0.3	-1.9	21	+2.4	-11.6
70	Florida International	Conference USA	49.4	49.8	-0.4	-3.4	20	-2.1	-36.6
71	Missouri	SEC	48.8	49.2	-0.4	+0.4	12	-7.6	-39.5
72	UCLA	Pac-12	50.5	51.4	-0.9	-1.1	33	+6.2	+6.7
73	Kansas	Big 12	51.5	52.5	-1.0	-1.8	16	-1.9	-29.4
74	Tennessee	SEC	48.2	49.2	-1.0	-2.0	9	-8.8	-44.1
75	Massachusetts	FBS Independents	50.9	52.0	-1.1	+0.3	21	+6.8	-25.9
76	Penn State	Big Ten	45.4	46.6	-1.2	-0.9	18	-0.9	-47.1
77	Auburn	SEC	47.2	48.5	-1.4	-3.0	11	-7.2	-55.3
78	Ohio State	Big Ten	44.7	46.1	-1.4	+1.5	19	+2.9	-29.2
79	Duke	ACC	50.0	51.6	-1.6	-0.7	22	+1.7	-26.1
80	San Diego State	Mountain West	45.9	47.7	-1.8	-4.4	19	-2.1	-36.4
81	Old Dominion	Conference USA	55.4	57.3	-1.9	-0.5	30	+2.8	-10.3
82	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	48.9	51.0	-2.1	-3.0	16	-4.3	-38.5
83	Wake Forest	ACC	47.5	49.7	-2.2	-2.9	14	-3.8	-46.8
84	Louisiana	Sun Belt	43.3	45.7	-2.3	-0.8	23	+0.5	-43.8
85	UNLV	Mountain West	49.8	52.1	-2.4	-2.3	24	+0.4	-29.8
86	Oklahoma	Big 12	42.1	45.4	-3.3	-3.8	15	-3.5	-52.0
87	TCU	Big 12	47.1	50.9	-3.8	-4.5	12	-6.9	-40.5
88	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	44.7	48.7	-4.0	-1.9	13	-5.9	-42.4
89	South Florida	American Athletic	46.6	50.7	-4.1	-4.6	14	+0.1	-12.5
90	Ohio	Mid-American	42.6	47.1	-4.5	-4.4	13	-10.4	-48.8
91	Minnesota	Big Ten	41.4	45.9	-4.6	-4.4	23	+0.9	-14.8
92	UTSA	Conference USA	47.9	52.6	-4.6	-2.0	23	+4.1	-34.1
93	Kent State	Mid-American	43.8	49.1	-5.2	-3.1	12	-8.0	-56.1
94	UTEP	Conference USA	49.9	55.2	-5.3	-4.4	24	-2.4	-6.7
95	Wisconsin	Big Ten	40.0	45.3	-5.3	-6.2	28	+1.7	-37.8
96	Rice	Conference USA	46.1	51.4	-5.3	-5.7	17	-3.0	-30.6
97	Cincinnati	American Athletic	42.3	47.7	-5.3	-6.2	17	+2.6	-25.6
98	Illinois	Big Ten	48.1	53.5	-5.5	-7.7	11	-3.2	-13.2
99	Utah	Pac-12	41.0	46.5	-5.5	-6.3	31	+0.6	-24.4
100	Georgia State	Sun Belt	40.0	45.7	-5.7	-5.3	32	+10.7	+0.0
101	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	44.7	50.5	-5.8	-5.3	27	+4.7	-18.6
102	UAB	Conference USA	41.0	47.0	-6.0	-5.2	19	+1.3	-39.5
103	App State	Sun Belt	41.0	47.0	-6.0	-6.0	17	-2.4	-45.2
104	Marshall	Conference USA	42.5	48.7	-6.1	-4.8	13	-5.1	-48.9
105	Ball State	Mid-American	44.4	50.7	-6.3	-9.0	24	-4.5	-22.9
106	Houston	American Athletic	44.4	51.4	-7.0	-6.7	20	+1.9	-12.8
107	Virginia Tech	ACC	41.1	48.5	-7.4	-6.9	12	-3.1	-55.6
108	Oklahoma State	Big 12	41.8	49.2	-7.4	-5.7	20	-4.8	-43.9
109	Charlotte	Conference USA	42.4	50.0	-7.6	-6.5	28	+0.3	+0.0
110	Nebraska	Big Ten	41.3	49.2	-7.9	-5.0	19	+1.4	-36.6
111	Bowling Green	Mid-American	43.3	51.3	-8.0	-8.4	25	+3.3	-10.3
112	Toledo	Mid-American	40.8	48.9	-8.1	-9.1	29	+2.7	-34.6
113	Mississippi State	SEC	40.8	49.1	-8.4	-8.8	16	-0.9	-28.6
114	Kansas State	Big 12	41.1	49.7	-8.6	-9.8	14	-5.0	-30.3
115	Louisville	ACC	39.4	48.4	-9.1	-9.4	20	+6.7	-15.6
116	Georgia Tech	ACC	41.8	52.1	-10.3	-8.4	15	-3.9	-36.1
117	Rutgers	Big Ten	41.1	51.8	-10.7	-11.1	14	-5.1	-45.2
118	Tulane	American Athletic	39.1	49.8	-10.7	-11.0	34	+5.5	+2.0
119	Wyoming	Mountain West	35.0	46.9	-12.0	-13.0	12	-9.7	-51.1
120	New Mexico	Mountain West	41.6	53.6	-12.0	-13.4	19	-5.3	-21.1
121	Northwestern	Big Ten	41.0	53.0	-12.0	-12.6	22	+1.8	-26.0
122	Ole Miss	SEC	40.1	52.7	-12.6	-15.4	28	-0.4	-9.3
123	Buffalo	Mid-American	32.2	45.2	-13.0	-13.0	23	+2.4	-27.3
124	South Alabama	Sun Belt	39.9	53.3	-13.4	-11.9	20	-0.7	-29.3
125	Kentucky	SEC	33.6	48.3	-14.6	-14.2	28	-2.1	-18.4
126	Boston College	ACC	33.6	48.6	-15.1	-17.2	24	+4.1	-20.5
127	Air Force	Mountain West	16.8	43.0	-26.2	-26.8	31	+2.4	-24.2
128	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	22.4	51.3	-28.9	-29.3	15	-5.2	-28.3
129	Army	FBS Independents	17.4	49.6	-32.2	-30.7	46	+16.1	+2.3
130	Navy	American Athletic	13.4	46.3	-32.9	-29.6	39	+10.8	-11.6

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,690 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-13.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	24%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	72%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.