Southern vs. Alabama State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Southern

0010

Alabama State

▸0014

Final

Hornet StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	7	3	0	0	10
ALAB	7	0	7	0	14

SOUTTeam statsALAB

235Total yards266

166Pass180

69Rush86

15First downs13

4-143rd down5-13

4Turnovers0

30:44Possession29:16

Scoring plays

• Q3 5:36ALABKisean Johnson 17 Yd pass from Dematrius Davis (Jayden John Kick)10–14
• Q2 14:01SOUTJoshua Griffin 40 Yd Field Goal 10–7
• Q1 4:08ALABKisean Johnson 43 Yd pass from Dematrius Davis (Jayden John Kick)7–7
• Q1 9:08SOUTKendric Rhymes 16 Yd pass from Harold Blood (Joshua Griffin Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −2.5

Against the number

ALAB covered

line SOUT −2.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ALAB 100%50%SOUT 100%

Kickoff140 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ALAB (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ALAB 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SOUT −2.5

Closing total

42.5

Model line

—

Actual result

SOUT 10 – 14 ALAB

Leaders

Southern

• PassJR Blood 17/34, 166 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushGary Quarles 8 CAR, 30 YDS
• RecJailon Howard 3 REC, 42 YDS

Alabama State

• PassDematrius Davis Jr. 15/21, 180 YDS, 2 TD
• RushJa'Won Howell 15 CAR, 36 YDS
• RecKisean Johnson 9 REC, 107 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

122

Points / snap

0.20

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ALAB up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,672 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

53%

ALAB went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LDavidson vs VMI7-12WNorth Alabama vs Chattanooga41-27WUCLA vs Coastal Carolina27-13LBoise State vs UCF22-24WApp State vs East Carolina43-28

Fourth downs

17 calls

ALAB gave up 1.4 points to the model on fourth down.SOUT 7/7 · ALAB 5/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Southern vs. Alabama State?

Southern 10, Alabama State 14.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ALAB) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

ALAB

35%

Success rate

31%

0.14

EPA / pass

0.24

-0.18

EPA / rush

-0.26

30%

Early-down success

31%

31%

Pass success

39%

40%

Rush success

25%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

31%

58%

Pass rate

42%

8.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

9.7

SOUT

8.5 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

ALAB

9.7 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		ALAB
235	Total yards	266
166	Passing yards	180
69	Rushing yards	86
15	First downs	13
4-14	3rd down	5-13
4-5	4th down	0-2
17/35	Comp/Att	15/21
4.7	Yards per pass	8.6
2.6	Yards per rush	2.3
4	Turnovers	0
6-50	Penalties	4-20
30:44	Possession	29:16

Fourth downs

17 calls

SOUT

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

ALAB

5/7 with the model

−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 9:36 ALAB punt on 4th & 5 at SOUT 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →ALAB 2/11 scoring drives

SOUTTD14 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q1

ALABTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTFG10 pl, 57 yds· own 20Q1

ALABMISS11 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 24Q2

ALABPUNT10 pl, 41 yds· own 18Q2

SOUTEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q2

SOUTINT6 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

ALABUncateg4 pl, 1 yds· opp 36Q3

SOUTPUNT4 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q3

ALABDOWNS6 pl, 17 yds· opp 49Q3

SOUTUncateg3 pl, -7 yds· own 32Q3

ALABTD2 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q3

ALABMISS10 pl, 30 yds· own 40Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 30Q4

ALABPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· opp 39Q4

ALABPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 42Q4

ALABPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 39Q4

SOUTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q4

SOUTFUM9 pl, 39 yds· own 20Q4

SOUTDOWNS8 pl, 12 yds· own 27Q4

ALABUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· opp 36Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 5:36ALABKisean Johnson 17 Yd pass from Dematrius Davis (Jayden John Kick)10–14
• Q2 14:01SOUTJoshua Griffin 40 Yd Field Goal 10–7
• Q1 4:08ALABKisean Johnson 43 Yd pass from Dematrius Davis (Jayden John Kick)7–7
• Q1 9:08SOUTKendric Rhymes 16 Yd pass from Harold Blood (Joshua Griffin Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →