#5Tra Barnett

RB·Georgia State·20193.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Tra Barnett is a Featured Back for Georgia State. Tra's 2019 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 237 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tra Barnett's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1453 Rush yards12 Rush TD248 Carries5.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions69 Rec yards0 Rec TD4.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency45
Volume81
Explosiveness58
Consistency77
Receiving34

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.20 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Arkansas State (SP+ -3).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Tennessee	W38-30	10.8	21	95	4.5	1	1	12	0	0.28
2	vsFurman	W48-42	—	9	52	5.8	1	—	—	—	0.27
3	@Western Michigan	L10-57	-4.9	19	127	6.7	0	2	10	0	0.26
4	@Texas State	L34-37	-16.2	12	55	4.6	0	—	—	—	—
6	vsArkansas State	W52-38	-2.9	14	139	9.9	1	2	10	0	0.67
7	@Coastal Carolina	W31-21	-12.8	20	110	5.5	2	1	3	0	0.20
8	vsArmy	W28-21	-2.1	17	108	6.4	1	1	2	0	0.29
9	vsTroy	W52-33	-4.4	34	242	7.1	2	1	2	0	0.31
11	@UL Monroe	L31-45	-10.7	32	190	5.9	2	—	—	—	0.26
12	vsApp State	L27-56	11.3	17	90	5.3	0	3	3	0	-0.02
13	vsSouth Alabama	W28-15	-20.3	23	128	5.6	1	1	10	0	0.07
14	@Georgia Southern	L10-38	-4.5	15	53	3.5	1	2	14	0	0.27
1	vsWyoming	L17-38	-1.1	15	64	4.3	0	2	3	0	-0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.3%

Passing plays

5.3%

Rushing plays

44.6%

Standard downs

34.2%

Passing downs

12.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.15 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.