Montana State vs. Weber State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Montana State2-1
▸
Weber State0-1
Final
Stewart StadiumConference game
MONTTeam statsWEBE
518Total yards208
172Pass101
346Rush107
24First downs13
5-123rd down3-17
0Turnovers1
30:50Possession29:10
- Q4 2:47MONTElijah Elliott 56 Yd Run (Casey Kautzman Kick)40–0
- Q4 6:08MONTJared White 14 Yd Run (Casey Kautzman Kick)33–0
- Q4 13:22MONTTreyton Pickering 24 Yd pass from Sean Chambers (Brendan Hall PAT blocked)26–0
- Q2 5:30MONTSean Chambers 29 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)20–0
- Q2 7:35MONTSean Chambers 10 Yd Run (Brendan Hall PAT failed)13–0
- Q2 14:07MONTTreyton Pickering 29 Yd pass from Sean Chambers (Brendan Hall Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
MONT −7
Against the number
MONT covered
line MONT −7
What the numbers say
- MONT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WEBE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 4.8
Kickoff147 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
WEBE (top)MONT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WEBE 0%
Closing line
MONT −7
Closing total
54.5
Model line
—
Actual result
MONT 40 – 0 WEBE
Montana State
- PassSean Chambers 8/17, 172 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJulius Davis 14 CAR, 132 YDS
- RecTreyton Pickering 3 REC, 83 YDS, 2 TD
Weber State
- PassKylan Weisser 14/29, 101 YDS
- RushDamon Bankston 14 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecTreyShun Hurry 2 REC, 30 YDS
27sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
130
Points / snap
0.31
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMONT up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 815 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
98%
MONT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Montana State vs. Weber State?
Montana State 40, Weber State 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WEBE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
MONT
WEBE
50%
Success rate
36%
0.27
EPA / pass
-0.25
0.56
EPA / rush
-0.19
51%
Early-down success
43%
40%
Pass success
39%
55%
Rush success
32%
23%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
3%
13%
Stuffed rush rate
16%
33%
Pass rate
47%
8.1
Avg 3rd-down distance
4.8
MONT
8.1 yards to go on 3rd down
60 scrimmage snaps
WEBE
4.8 yards to go on 3rd down
70 scrimmage snaps
| MONT | WEBE | |
|---|---|---|
| 518 | Total yards | 208 |
| 172 | Passing yards | 101 |
| 346 | Rushing yards | 107 |
| 24 | First downs | 13 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 3-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-6 |
| 8/17 | Comp/Att | 14/29 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 3.5 |
| 7.7 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 5-44 |
| 30:50 | Possession | 29:10 |
MONT
4/6 with the model
−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
WEBE
10/11 with the model
−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 13:29 WEBE go for it on 4th & 10 at WEBE 17. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishMONT 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WEBE 0/12 scoring drives
WEBEPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 24Q1
MONTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q1
WEBEPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 33Q1
MONTMISS10 pl, 54 yds· own 30Q1
WEBEPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 20Q1
MONTTD5 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q1
WEBEPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
MONTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 28Q2
WEBEPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q2
MONTTD6 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2
WEBEFUM3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2
MONTTD2 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q2
WEBEPUNT7 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2
MONTMISS11 pl, 37 yds· own 31Q2
MONTPUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3
WEBEDOWNS14 pl, 52 yds· own 35Q3
MONTPUNT7 pl, 42 yds· own 13Q3
WEBEDOWNS7 pl, 20 yds· own 4Q3
MONTTD1 pl, 24 yds· opp 24Q4
MONTTD1 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q4
WEBEDOWNS9 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q4
MONTTD7 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q4
WEBEDOWNS9 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q4
WEBEPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 30Q4
MONTUncateg3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 2:47MONTElijah Elliott 56 Yd Run (Casey Kautzman Kick)40–0
- Q4 6:08MONTJared White 14 Yd Run (Casey Kautzman Kick)33–0
- Q4 13:22MONTTreyton Pickering 24 Yd pass from Sean Chambers (Brendan Hall PAT blocked)26–0
- Q2 5:30MONTSean Chambers 29 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)20–0
- Q2 7:35MONTSean Chambers 10 Yd Run (Brendan Hall PAT failed)13–0
- Q2 14:07MONTTreyton Pickering 29 Yd pass from Sean Chambers (Brendan Hall Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →