#5Shai Werts

WR·Georgia Southern·2020 2019 2018 20171.0 pts line value1st Round

Shai Werts is a 4-year Slot Specialist WR for Georgia Southern. Shai's 2020 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 266 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shai Werts's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

79/131 Comp/Att1063 Pass yards8 Pass TD6 INT60.3% Comp %

Rushing

709 Rush yards11 Rush TD146 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts37 Punt yards37.0 Yards/punt37 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs WR peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Explosiveness36
Consistency79
Pass-Down1

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Peak game: 0.48 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Campbell.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8
D.J. Foster	Arizona State	2014	174	0.200	1.0	34.8
Zach Abey	Navy	2018	126	0.370	2.1	46.6
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6
Shane Tucker	Middle Tennessee	2014	97	0.320	1.6	31.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
2	vsCampbell	W27-26	—	0.48	0.32	0.62
4	@Louisiana	L18-20	8.1	0.25	0.69	-0.42
5	@UL Monroe	W35-30	-18.4	0.38	-0.32	1.31
7	vsMassachusetts	W41-0	-31.3	0.36	0.65	0.01
8	@Coastal Carolina	L14-28	6.6	-0.04	-0.26	0.42
9	vsSouth Alabama	W24-17	-11.3	0.23	0.31	0.18
10	vsTroy	W20-13	2.3	-0.12	-0.35	0.13
11	vsTexas State	W40-38	-13.4	0.14	-0.15	0.31
12	@Army	L27-28	2.7	0.40	1.01	-0.08
13	@Georgia State	L24-30	-5.7	0.33	0.62	0.15
1	vsLouisiana Tech	W38-3	-7.0	0.43	0.17	0.70

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

40.6%

Passing plays

90.4%

Rushing plays

25.8%

Standard downs

34.0%

Passing downs

60.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.35
Passing downs: 0.06
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2020 · 45 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Georgia Southern	0.0	0.150	—	24.2
2018	Georgia Southern	2.3	0.360	+0.21	51.8
2019	Georgia Southern	1.9	0.210	-0.15	32.1
2020	Georgia Southern	1.0	0.310	+0.10	39.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.