Georgia vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UGATeam statsVAN
- Q4 3:13UGADaijun Edwards 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)37–20
- Q4 6:14VANSedrick Alexander 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–20
- Q4 9:05UGAPeyton Woodring 30 Yd Field Goal 30–14
- Q4 14:57VANRichie Hoskins 3 Yd pass from Ken Seals (Jacob Borcila Kick)27–14
- Q3 6:22UGAPeyton Woodring 44 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q2 0:12UGADominic Lovett 4 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)24–7
- Q2 3:40UGAPeyton Woodring 31 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 13:42UGAKendall Milton 3 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:42UGACarson Beck 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:07VANLondon Humphreys 49 Yd pass from Ken Seals (Jacob Borcila Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- VAN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UGA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 3.7
- PassCarson Beck 29/39, 261 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDaijun Edwards 20 CAR, 146 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDominic Lovett 9 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKen Seals 19/29, 201 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushSedrick Alexander 6 CAR, 16 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJayden McGowan 5 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUGA up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 817 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. Vanderbilt?
Georgia 37, Vanderbilt 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| UGA | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 552 | Total yards | 219 |
| 261 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 291 | Rushing yards | 18 |
| 26 | First downs | 9 |
| 11-16 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 29/39 | Comp/Att | 19/29 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 7.5 | Yards per rush | 1.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-39 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 37:19 | Possession | 22:41 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:22 VAN go for it on 4th & 8 at UGA 25. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:13UGADaijun Edwards 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)37–20
- Q4 6:14VANSedrick Alexander 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–20
- Q4 9:05UGAPeyton Woodring 30 Yd Field Goal 30–14
- Q4 14:57VANRichie Hoskins 3 Yd pass from Ken Seals (Jacob Borcila Kick)27–14
- Q3 6:22UGAPeyton Woodring 44 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q2 0:12UGADominic Lovett 4 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)24–7
- Q2 3:40UGAPeyton Woodring 31 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 13:42UGAKendall Milton 3 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:42UGACarson Beck 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:07VANLondon Humphreys 49 Yd pass from Ken Seals (Jacob Borcila Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1259, UGA Elo 2103 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN +31.4 (3% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 60–17–2 · Georgia has won 6 straight · 24% have been one-possession games
| UGA | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +33.9 (#4) | CORE overall | -17.1 (#117) |
| +23 / -11 | offense / defense | -10 / +7 |
| 3.90 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 1.53 | allowed / drive | 2.93 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →