Arkansas vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARKTeam statsTTU
- Q4 10:56ARKAlex Collins 84 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)49–28
- Q4 13:59ARKJonathan Williams 7 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)42–28
- Q3 5:42TTUJakeem Grant 39 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Ryan Bustin Kick)35–28
- Q3 7:57ARKBrandon Allen 5 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:30ARKJonathan Williams 12 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)28–21
- Q2 6:45TTUDavis Webb 3 Yd Run (Ryan Bustin Kick)21–21
- Q2 11:15ARKAlex Collins 15 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)21–14
- Q2 13:04TTUD.J. Polite-Bray 3 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Ryan Bustin Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:26ARKJonathan Williams 13 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:36ARKJonathan Williams 6 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:58TTUReginald Davis 15 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Ryan Bustin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TTU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.1 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassBrandon Allen 6/12, 61 YDS
- RushAlex Collins 27 CAR, 212 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKeon Hatcher 2 REC, 22 YDS
- PassDavis Webb 27/45, 252 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushDeAndre Washington 8 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecJakeem Grant Sr. 6 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:30ARK +29%
Jonathan Williams run for 12 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
- Q3 7:57ARK +25%
Brandon Allen run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
- Q3 5:42TTU +22%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)
- Q2 11:15ARK +21%
Alex Collins run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
- Q2 6:45TTU +21%
Davis Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)
- Q4 13:59ARK +20%
Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. Texas Tech?
Arkansas 49, Texas Tech 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TTU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARK | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 499 | Total yards | 353 |
| 61 | Passing yards | 252 |
| 438 | Rushing yards | 101 |
| 32 | First downs | 20 |
| 8-12 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 6/12 | Comp/Att | 27/45 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 40:39 | Possession | 19:21 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:04 ARK punt on 4th & 3 at TTU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:56ARKAlex Collins 84 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)49–28
- Q4 13:59ARKJonathan Williams 7 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)42–28
- Q3 5:42TTUJakeem Grant 39 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Ryan Bustin Kick)35–28
- Q3 7:57ARKBrandon Allen 5 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:30ARKJonathan Williams 12 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)28–21
- Q2 6:45TTUDavis Webb 3 Yd Run (Ryan Bustin Kick)21–21
- Q2 11:15ARKAlex Collins 15 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)21–14
- Q2 13:04TTUD.J. Polite-Bray 3 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Ryan Bustin Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:26ARKJonathan Williams 13 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:36ARKJonathan Williams 6 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:58TTUReginald Davis 15 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Ryan Bustin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1565, ARK Elo 1399 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU -9 (73% to win) — 6.0 points clear of TTU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #72 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Arkansas leads 30–8 · 26% have been one-possession games
| ARK | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 1.57 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 28% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →