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Gridpex

Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Rank byBiggest missLongest oddsBiggest poll gap

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

SeasonAll-time20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1Ohio State over Wisconsin
59–0 · neutral site · 2014-12-07
+3+62.043%
2Georgia Southern over Troy
42–10 · at home · 2014-10-30
+20.5+52.510%
3App State over Troy
53–14 · on the road · 2014-10-18
+6+45.035%
4Louisiana Tech over Louisiana
48–20 · on the road · 2014-09-06
+16+44.016%
5UTEP over UTSA
34–0 · on the road · 2014-10-25
+9.5+43.528%
6BYU over Texas
41–7 · on the road · 2014-09-06
+4.5+38.539%
7Wyoming over Fresno State
45–17 · on the road · 2014-11-02
+10.5+38.526%
8Florida International over Florida Atlantic
38–10 · at home · 2014-10-02
+9+37.029%
9Baylor over Oklahoma
48–14 · on the road · 2014-11-08
+3+37.043%
10Utah State over BYU
35–20 · on the road · 2014-10-04
+21+36.09%
11Western Kentucky over Bowling Green
59–31 · at home · 2014-08-29
+7.5+35.532%
12Arizona over Utah
42–10 · on the road · 2014-11-22
+3.5+35.541%
13NC State over North Carolina
35–7 · on the road · 2014-11-29
+6+34.035%
14Memphis over Cincinnati
41–14 · on the road · 2014-10-04
+6.5+33.534%
15Buffalo over Akron
55–24 · at home · 2014-11-12
+2.5+33.544%
16UTSA over Houston
27–7 · on the road · 2014-08-30
+12.5+32.522%
17Northwestern over Penn State
29–6 · on the road · 2014-09-27
+9+32.029%
18Missouri over Florida
42–13 · on the road · 2014-10-18
+3+32.043%
19Georgia Tech over Pittsburgh
56–28 · on the road · 2014-10-25
+4+32.040%
20Arkansas over Ole Miss
30–0 · at home · 2014-11-22
+2+32.045%
21East Carolina over North Carolina
70–41 · at home · 2014-09-20
+2+31.045%
22North Carolina over Duke
45–20 · on the road · 2014-11-21
+6+31.035%
23Florida Atlantic over Tulsa
50–21 · at home · 2014-09-13
+1.5+30.546%
24New Mexico over UTSA
21–9 · on the road · 2014-10-04
+18.5+30.512%
25Arizona over Oregon
31–24 · on the road · 2014-10-03
+22.5+29.58%
26Central Michigan over Northern Illinois
34–17 · on the road · 2014-10-11
+12.5+29.522%
27Air Force over Boise State
28–14 · at home · 2014-09-27
+15+29.017%
28Akron over Pittsburgh
21–10 · on the road · 2014-09-27
+17.5+28.514%
29Ohio State over Oregon
42–20 · neutral site · 2015-01-13
+6.5+28.534%
30Florida International over UAB
34–20 · on the road · 2014-09-27
+14+28.019%
31West Virginia over Oklahoma State
34–10 · on the road · 2014-10-25
+4+28.040%
32Florida over Georgia
38–20 · neutral site · 2014-11-01
+10+28.027%
33Kent State over Army
39–17 · at home · 2014-10-18
+5.5+27.537%
34Indiana State over Ball State
27–20 · on the road · 2014-09-13
+20+27.011%
35Northwestern State over Louisiana Tech
30–27 · on the road · 2014-09-20
+24+27.07%
36Fresno State over Nevada
40–20 · on the road · 2014-11-23
+6.5+26.534%
37Virginia Tech over Ohio State
35–21 · on the road · 2014-09-07
+12+26.023%
38Boston College over USC
37–31 · at home · 2014-09-14
+20+26.011%
39Miami over Virginia Tech
30–6 · on the road · 2014-10-24
+2+26.045%
40Ball State over Bowling Green
41–24 · on the road · 2014-11-28
+9+26.029%
41Rice over Fresno State
30–6 · neutral site · 2014-12-25
+2+26.045%
42Arkansas over Texas Tech
49–28 · on the road · 2014-09-13
+4.5+25.539%
43Minnesota over Michigan
30–14 · on the road · 2014-09-27
+9.5+25.528%
44Stanford over UCLA
31–10 · on the road · 2014-11-28
+4.5+25.539%
45New Mexico State over Cal Poly
28–10 · at home · 2014-08-29
+7+25.033%
46Louisiana Tech over North Texas
42–21 · on the road · 2014-09-12
+4+25.040%
47Maryland over Indiana
37–15 · on the road · 2014-09-27
+3+25.043%
48Washington over California
31–7 · on the road · 2014-10-11
+1+25.048%
49Georgia Southern over South Alabama
28–6 · on the road · 2014-09-20
+2.5+24.544%
50Massachusetts over Kent State
40–17 · on the road · 2014-10-11
+1.5+24.546%
51North Texas over Florida Atlantic
31–10 · at home · 2014-11-09
+3.5+24.541%
52Georgia Tech over Clemson
28–6 · at home · 2014-11-15
+2.5+24.544%
53Eastern Michigan over Buffalo
37–27 · at home · 2014-10-11
+14+24.019%
54Kansas over Iowa State
34–14 · at home · 2014-11-08
+4+24.040%
55Virginia over Miami
30–13 · at home · 2014-11-23
+7+24.033%
56Western Kentucky over Marshall
67–66 · on the road · 2014-11-28
+23+24.08%
57Central Michigan over Purdue
38–17 · on the road · 2014-09-06
+2.5+23.544%
58West Virginia over Baylor
41–27 · at home · 2014-10-18
+9.5+23.528%
59Tulane over Houston
31–24 · on the road · 2014-11-08
+16+23.016%
60Hawai'i over San José State
13–0 · on the road · 2014-11-15
+10+23.027%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.