#10Brandon Allen

QB·Arkansas·2015 201414.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Brandon Allen is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Arkansas. Brandon's 2015 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 416 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brandon Allen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

244/370 Comp/Att3440 Pass yards30 Pass TD8 INT65.9% Comp %

Rushing

107 Rush yards1 Rush TD56 Carries1.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency98
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency83
Clutch89

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.45 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs UTEP (SP+ -20).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Dillon Gabriel	Oklahoma	2023	473	0.732	16.1	346.4
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Jayden Daniels	LSU	2023	461	0.783	17.5	360.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsUTEP	W48-13	-19.5	14/18	308	4	0	99.9	-1	0	1.45
2	vsToledo	L12-16	7.7	32/53	412	0	1	64.8	23	0	0.30
3	vsTexas Tech	L24-35	4.5	16/21	196	2	1	81.9	22	0	0.75
4	vsTexas A&M	L21-28	14.1	20/25	225	1	1	53.3	35	0	0.46
5	@Tennessee	W24-20	19.5	11/24	219	1	0	63.4	23	0	0.49
6	@Alabama	L14-27	29.0	15/32	176	2	1	13.6	6	0	0.19
8	vsAuburn	W54-46	14.6	19/31	233	3	1	79.9	11	0	0.27
9	vsUT Martin	W63-28	—	14/19	265	2	0	96.5	-4	1	0.84
10	@Ole Miss	W53-52	27.0	33/45	442	6	0	93.9	6	0	0.66
11	@LSU	W31-14	19.7	9/16	141	1	1	55.9	-8	0	0.35
12	vsMississippi State	L50-51	15.1	30/43	406	7	0	97.4	5	0	0.75
13	vsMissouri	W28-3	3.4	11/17	102	0	1	67.4	-2	0	0.22
1	vsKansas State	W45-23	2.6	20/26	315	1	1	90.9	-9	0	0.72

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.5%

Passing plays

99.2%

Rushing plays

8.8%

Standard downs

37.0%

Passing downs

75.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.43
Passing downs: 0.68
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.55 / 0.43

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Arkansas	7.1	0.500	—	179.0
2015	Arkansas	14.9	0.740	+0.24	288.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.