Memphis vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsUAB
- Q4 2:19MEMChristian Ross 37 Yd pass from AJ Hill (Gianni Spetic Kick)24–31
- Q4 4:06UABIverson Hooks 20 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)17–31
- Q3 3:14MEMGianni Spetic 25 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 10:33UABSolomon Beebe 81 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:02UABIverson Hooks 16 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)14–17
- Q2 1:12MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:08UABJonah Delange 21 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 9:42MEMSutton Smith 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:56UABIverson Hooks 15 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAJ Hill 13/25, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushGreg Desrosiers Jr. 11 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCortez Braham Jr. 5 REC, 83 YDS
- PassRyder Burton 20/27, 251 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushSolomon Beebe 5 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIverson Hooks 11 REC, 172 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUAB up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:33UAB +27%
Solomon Beebe run for 81 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
- Q2 0:02UAB +18%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 16 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
- Q4 9:33UAB +16%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Ferguson,Antonio) 2 yards from UAB05 to UAB03. NO PLAY
- Q2 1:12MEM +15%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
- Q3 1:36UAB +14%
Solomon Beebe run for 2 yds to the UAB 35
- Q1 9:56UAB +13%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 15 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. UAB?
Memphis 24, UAB 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MEM | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 362 | Total yards | 470 |
| 243 | Passing yards | 251 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 219 |
| 20 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 22/35 | Comp/Att | 20/27 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-54 | Penalties | 6-47 |
| 24:55 | Possession | 35:05 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:08 UAB field goal on 4th & 3 at MEM 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:19MEMChristian Ross 37 Yd pass from AJ Hill (Gianni Spetic Kick)24–31
- Q4 4:06UABIverson Hooks 20 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)17–31
- Q3 3:14MEMGianni Spetic 25 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 10:33UABSolomon Beebe 81 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:02UABIverson Hooks 16 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)14–17
- Q2 1:12MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:08UABJonah Delange 21 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 9:42MEMSutton Smith 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:56UABIverson Hooks 15 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1209, MEM Elo 1723 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB +18.2 (13% to win) — 5.3 points clear of UAB's market line of +23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #2 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #35 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →UAB leads 11–7 · 39% have been one-possession games
| MEM | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.0 (#61) | CORE overall | -15.8 (#112) |
| +4 / +2 | offense / defense | -4 / +11 |
| 2.73 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 3.61 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →