Northern Illinois vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsBC
- OT 0:00NIURocky Lombardi 1 Yd Run 27–24
- OT 0:00BCLiam Connor 39 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q4 1:44BCJaden Williams 30 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)21–21
- Q4 5:59BCThomas Castellanos 2 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)21–14
- Q4 9:24NIUBrock Lampe 1 Yd Run (Jake Seibert Kick)21–7
- Q3 4:58BCLewis Bond 11 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)14–7
- Q3 10:33NIUAntario Brown 2 Yd Run (Jake Seibert Kick)14–0
- Q2 2:44NIUAntario Brown 7 Yd pass from Justin Lynch (Jake Seibert Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NIU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassRocky Lombardi 13/28, 165 YDS
- RushGavin Williams 15 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecKacper Rutkiewicz 5 REC, 46 YDS
- PassThomas Castellanos 13/28, 138 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushThomas Castellanos 9 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLewis Bond 4 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNIU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,297 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:15NIU +77%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 13 yds to the NIU 47 for a 1ST down
- Q4 0:39BC +64%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete
- Q4 1:44BC +21%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete
- Q2 2:38NIU +19%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaden Williams for 5 yds to the BC 39
- Q3 10:27NIU +16%
Pat Garwo III run for 12 yds to the BC 28
- Q4 8:21NIU +15%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Jaden thrown to the NIU22. PENALTY NIU Personal Foul on THOMAS, Raishein enforced 15 yards…
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Boston College?
Northern Illinois 27, Boston College 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NIU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 338 | Total yards | 314 |
| 172 | Passing yards | 168 |
| 166 | Rushing yards | 146 |
| 21 | First downs | 19 |
| 10-17 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 14/29 | Comp/Att | 17/38 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 10-93 |
| 36:53 | Possession | 23:07 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:21 BC go for it on 4th & 10 at NIU 13. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.89 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00NIURocky Lombardi 1 Yd Run 27–24
- OT 0:00BCLiam Connor 39 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q4 1:44BCJaden Williams 30 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)21–21
- Q4 5:59BCThomas Castellanos 2 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)21–14
- Q4 9:24NIUBrock Lampe 1 Yd Run (Jake Seibert Kick)21–7
- Q3 4:58BCLewis Bond 11 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)14–7
- Q3 10:33NIUAntario Brown 2 Yd Run (Jake Seibert Kick)14–0
- Q2 2:44NIUAntario Brown 7 Yd pass from Justin Lynch (Jake Seibert Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1314, NIU Elo 1304 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC -2.8 (59% to win) — 6.2 points clear of NIU's market line of -9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#101 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #45 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| NIU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#84) | CORE overall | -1.5 (#68) |
| -2 / +3 | offense / defense | +2 / +3 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 2.28 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 2.57 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →