#12Rocky Lombardi

QB·Northern Illinois·2023

Rocky Lombardi is a Dual-Threat QB for Northern Illinois. Rocky's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 384 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Rocky Lombardi's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

189/327 Comp/Att2274 Pass yards11 Pass TD7 INT57.8% Comp %

Rushing

131 Rush yards7 Rush TD72 Carries1.8 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts40 Punt yards40.0 Yards/punt40 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat82
Consistency63
Clutch68

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.84 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Akron (SP+ -22).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Boston College	W27-24	-5.9	13/28	165	0	0	49.4	7	1	0.07
2	vsSouthern Illinois	L11-14	—	23/38	297	1	3	17.7	-10	0	0.43
3	@Nebraska	L11-35	0.3	11/28	73	0	1	7.4	-18	0	-0.34
4	vsTulsa	L14-22	-13.7	4/6	31	0	0	0.1	-7	0	-0.08
5	@Toledo	L33-35	3.7	21/31	258	2	0	74.0	26	1	0.37
6	@Akron	W55-14	-21.6	10/15	191	2	0	92.8	-4	0	0.84
7	vsOhio	W23-13	-1.6	15/23	172	1	0	62.9	21	0	0.27
8	vsEastern Michigan	W20-13	-12.3	21/33	173	0	0	32.5	-1	1	0.22
10	@Central Michigan	L31-37	-19.1	20/35	298	3	1	28.3	31	0	0.49
11	vsBall State	L17-20	-14.9	15/26	141	0	0	45.9	14	1	0.03
12	vsWestern Michigan	W24-0	-15.9	9/17	92	0	0	32.0	32	0	0.13
13	@Kent State	W37-27	-26.3	9/18	183	1	0	41.6	19	2	0.38
20	vsArkansas State	W21-19	-6.3	18/29	200	1	2	65.1	21	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.1%

Passing plays

90.2%

Rushing plays

12.9%

Standard downs

40.8%

Passing downs

61.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).