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Gridpex

Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Rank byBiggest missLongest oddsBiggest poll gap

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

SeasonAll-time20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1Arkansas State over Texas State
77–31 · at home · 2023-11-18
+3.2+49.242%
2South Florida over Syracuse
45–0 · neutral site · 2023-12-22
+4.2+49.240%
3New Mexico State over Auburn
31–10 · on the road · 2023-11-18
+25+46.06%
4Arizona over #19Washington State
44–6 · on the road · 2023-10-14
+7.5+45.532%
5Florida Atlantic over South Florida
56–14 · on the road · 2023-10-14
+2.5+44.544%
6UCF over #15Oklahoma State
45–3 · at home · 2023-11-11
+2.5+44.544%
7Auburn over Arkansas
48–10 · on the road · 2023-11-11
+2.5+40.544%
8Texas State over Baylor
42–31 · on the road · 2023-09-02
+27+38.05%
9Army over #17Air Force
23–3 · neutral site · 2023-11-04
+18+38.013%
10California over UCLA
33–7 · on the road · 2023-11-26
+9.5+35.528%
11Rice over Tulsa
42–10 · on the road · 2023-10-19
+3+35.043%
12Hawai'i over Air Force
27–13 · at home · 2023-11-12
+20.5+34.510%
13Duke over #9Clemson
28–7 · at home · 2023-09-05
+12.5+33.522%
14South Alabama over Oklahoma State
33–7 · on the road · 2023-09-16
+7+33.033%
15Bowling Green over Georgia Tech
38–27 · on the road · 2023-09-30
+22+33.08%
16Coastal Carolina over Marshall
34–6 · at home · 2023-10-28
+3.5+31.541%
17Kansas over UCF
51–22 · at home · 2023-10-07
+2+31.045%
18#16Missouri over #14Tennessee
36–7 · at home · 2023-11-11
+2+31.045%
19App State over Georgia State
42–14 · on the road · 2023-11-11
+2.5+30.544%
20New Mexico over Fresno State
25–17 · on the road · 2023-11-19
+22.5+30.58%
21Fresno State over New Mexico State
37–10 · neutral site · 2023-12-16
+3+30.043%
22Georgia Tech over Virginia
45–17 · on the road · 2023-11-04
+1.5+29.546%
23Navy over UAB
31–6 · at home · 2023-11-11
+3.5+28.541%
24Virginia over #10North Carolina
31–27 · on the road · 2023-10-21
+24+28.07%
25Arkansas State over Louisiana
37–17 · at home · 2023-11-04
+7+27.033%
26Fordham over Buffalo
40–37 · on the road · 2023-09-09
+23.5+26.57%
27Buffalo over Central Michigan
37–13 · at home · 2023-10-07
+2.5+26.544%
28Northwestern over Wisconsin
24–10 · on the road · 2023-11-11
+12+26.023%
29Arkansas State over Massachusetts
52–28 · on the road · 2023-09-30
+1.5+25.546%
30Iowa State over Cincinnati
30–10 · on the road · 2023-10-14
+5+25.038%
31Georgia State over Utah State
45–22 · neutral site · 2023-12-23
+1.8+24.846%
32Louisiana over South Alabama
33–20 · on the road · 2023-10-28
+11.5+24.524%
33UAB over South Florida
56–35 · at home · 2023-10-07
+3+24.043%
34Pittsburgh over #14Louisville
38–21 · at home · 2023-10-14
+7+24.033%
35Arizona State over UCLA
17–7 · on the road · 2023-11-12
+14+24.019%
36Colorado over #17TCU
45–42 · on the road · 2023-09-02
+20.8+23.810%
37Sam Houston over Louisiana Tech
42–27 · on the road · 2023-11-11
+8.5+23.530%
38#8Florida State over #5LSU
45–24 · neutral site · 2023-09-03
+2.2+23.244%
39Utah State over Colorado State
44–24 · at home · 2023-10-08
+3+23.043%
40UCLA over USC
38–20 · on the road · 2023-11-18
+5+23.038%
41New Mexico over Hawai'i
42–21 · at home · 2023-10-21
+1.5+22.546%
42East Carolina over Florida Atlantic
22–7 · on the road · 2023-11-11
+7.5+22.532%
43Boston College over #22SMU
23–14 · neutral site · 2023-12-28
+13.5+22.520%
44Louisiana over UAB
41–21 · on the road · 2023-09-16
+2+22.045%
45Troy over Georgia State
28–7 · on the road · 2023-09-30
+1+22.048%
46Georgia Tech over #17Miami
23–20 · on the road · 2023-10-08
+19+22.012%
47Maryland over Auburn
31–13 · neutral site · 2023-12-30
+4+22.040%
48Miami (OH) over Ohio
30–16 · on the road · 2023-10-28
+7.5+21.532%
49NC State over North Carolina
39–20 · at home · 2023-11-26
+2.5+21.544%
50Ohio over Georgia Southern
41–21 · neutral site · 2023-12-16
+1.5+21.546%
51Miami (OH) over Cincinnati
31–24 · on the road · 2023-09-16
+14.2+21.219%
52Boston College over Georgia Tech
38–23 · on the road · 2023-10-21
+6+21.035%
53Temple over Navy
32–18 · at home · 2023-11-04
+7+21.033%
54Purdue over Minnesota
49–30 · at home · 2023-11-11
+1.5+20.546%
55San Diego State over Fresno State
33–18 · at home · 2023-11-26
+5.5+20.537%
56Memphis over Iowa State
36–26 · on the road · 2023-12-29
+10.5+20.526%
57Central Michigan over South Alabama
34–30 · on the road · 2023-09-23
+16+20.016%
58Northwestern over Maryland
33–27 · at home · 2023-10-28
+14+20.019%
59Oklahoma State over Kansas State
29–21 · at home · 2023-10-06
+11.5+19.524%
60Arizona over #20UCLA
27–10 · at home · 2023-11-05
+2.5+19.544%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.