Marshall vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsJMU
- Q4 4:07MRSHKhalan Laborn 18 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)26–12
- Q3 8:10MRSHRece Verhoff 38 Yd Field Goal 19–12
- Q3 13:17MRSHC. Fancher pass,to C. Gammage for 57 yds for a TD, (R. Verhoff KICK)16–12
- Q2 9:54MRSHK. Laborn run for 61 yds for a TD, (R. Verhoff KICK)9–12
- Q1 1:07JMUCamden Wise 25 Yd Field Goal 2–12
- Q1 3:24MRSHE.J. Jackson Defensive PAT Conversion2–9
- Q1 3:24JMUB. Atkins pass,to Z. Horton for 17 yds for a TD0–9
- Q1 7:07JMUCamden Wise 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassCam Fancher 15/31, 159 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushKhalan Laborn 30 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCorey Gammage 5 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- PassWilliam Atkins IV 13/35, 164 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- RushPercy Agyei-Obese 20 CAR, 96 YDS
- RecTerrance Greene Jr. 3 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMRSH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:17MRSH +29%
C. Fancher pass,to C. Gammage for 57 yds for a TD, (R. Verhoff KICK)
- Q4 4:56MRSH +18%
Charles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the JMads 18
- Q4 5:29JMU +17%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds to the JMads 22
- Q4 7:22MRSH +16%
Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd to the Marsh 40
- Q4 8:48JMU +15%
Billy Atkins pass complete to Zach Horton for 10 yds to the JMads 23 for a 1ST down
- Q4 10:38MRSH +13%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 40
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. James Madison?
Marshall 26, James Madison 12.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MRSH | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 326 | Total yards | 247 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 164 |
| 167 | Rushing yards | 83 |
| 12 | First downs | 10 |
| 3-18 | 3rd down | 0-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 15/31 | Comp/Att | 13/35 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 4-33 |
| 31:34 | Possession | 28:26 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:05 JMU punt on 4th & 1 at JMU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:07MRSHKhalan Laborn 18 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)26–12
- Q3 8:10MRSHRece Verhoff 38 Yd Field Goal 19–12
- Q3 13:17MRSHC. Fancher pass,to C. Gammage for 57 yds for a TD, (R. Verhoff KICK)16–12
- Q2 9:54MRSHK. Laborn run for 61 yds for a TD, (R. Verhoff KICK)9–12
- Q1 1:07JMUCamden Wise 25 Yd Field Goal 2–12
- Q1 3:24MRSHE.J. Jackson Defensive PAT Conversion2–9
- Q1 3:24JMUB. Atkins pass,to Z. Horton for 17 yds for a TD0–9
- Q1 7:07JMUCamden Wise 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JMU Elo 1511, MRSH Elo 1526 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JMU -1.8 (56% to win) — 8.2 points clear of MRSH's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #63 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| MRSH | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.9 (#48) | CORE overall | +19.1 (#9) |
| -10 / -15 | offense / defense | +2 / -17 |
| 1.45 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 1.18 | allowed / drive | 1.37 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →