Arkansas vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARKTeam statsMSST
- Q3 3:50MSSTDillon Johnson 6 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)21–14
- Q3 11:21ARKHudson Henry 12 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (A.J. Reed Kick)21–7
- Q2 5:27ARKDe'Vion Warren 19 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (A.J. Reed Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:59MSSTJaVonta Payton 17 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:44ARKGreg Brooks Jr. 69 Yd Interception Return (A.J. Reed Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MSST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassFeleipe Franks 20/28, 212 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTrelon Smith 14 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecDe'Vion Warren 4 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKJ Costello 43/59, 313 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushDillon Johnson 9 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- RecOsirus Mitchell 5 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:21ARK +28%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for 12 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)
- Q3 3:50MSST +26%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
- Q2 5:27ARK +22%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 19 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)
- Q4 4:39ARK +21%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 18
- Q4 8:52ARK +17%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to De'Vion Warren
- Q4 11:13ARK +16%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 30
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. Mississippi State?
Arkansas 21, Mississippi State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MSST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARK | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 275 | Total yards | 400 |
| 212 | Passing yards | 313 |
| 63 | Rushing yards | 87 |
| 17 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 4-6 |
| 20/28 | Comp/Att | 43/60 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 23:40 | Possession | 36:20 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:39 ARK punt on 4th & 1 at ARK 18. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.89 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 3:50MSSTDillon Johnson 6 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)21–14
- Q3 11:21ARKHudson Henry 12 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (A.J. Reed Kick)21–7
- Q2 5:27ARKDe'Vion Warren 19 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (A.J. Reed Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:59MSSTJaVonta Payton 17 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:44ARKGreg Brooks Jr. 69 Yd Interception Return (A.J. Reed Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1623, ARK Elo 1292 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST -15.6 (85% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #8 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #18 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →Arkansas leads 19–16–1 · 56% have been one-possession games
| ARK | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.3 (#47) | CORE overall | -6.8 (#86) |
| +1 / -3 | offense / defense | -14 / -7 |
| 1.84 | points / drive | 1.35 |
| 2.47 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →