Playoff Picture
Twelve spots. 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons, rerun after every week: each game already played is held at its actual result and the rest of the schedule is played out, through conference championships and a fitted selection committee.
A percentage here is the share of those seasons that end with the team in the field — not a ranking, and not a claim about any single game. Through week 1, 99 games played. Rebuilt 2026-09-11.
The field
Grouped by how often each team makes it, not by how many losses it can absorb — those are different questions. Nothing sits in the top band yet, and it should not: one week in, every team still has eleven games to play.
Near-lock
in 85%+ of simulated seasons0Nobody yet — this fills in as the season plays out.
Long shot
2–10%24Every team
All 138 FBS teams the simulation ran, not a top twenty-five. Search yours and it answers with what it tells you about the favourites — how often 50,000 simulated seasons end with them in the field, what winning out would be worth, and the record those seasons project. Open the team for its full loss curve.
138 of 138 teams. If they win out is how often the team makes the field in the simulated seasons where they lose no more games — early in a year that is 100% for nearly every power-conference team, and it is the number that starts separating them. Affords is the most losses they can finish with and still be better than even.
| Team | Rec | Make CFP | Projected | If they win out | Affords | Conf title | Bye |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Notre Dame | 1-0 | 82% | 100% | ||||
 Ohio State | 1-0 | 70% | 100% | ||||
 Miami | 1-0 | 69% | 100% | ||||
 Texas Tech | 0-0 | 61% | 100% | ||||
 LSU | 1-0 | 59% | 100% | ||||
 Oregon | 1-0 | 59% | 100% | ||||
 Texas | 1-0 | 57% | 100% | ||||
 Georgia | 0-0 | 57% | 100% | ||||
 Indiana | 1-0 | 54% | 100% | ||||
 Penn State | 1-0 | 44% | 100% | ||||
 Texas A&M | 1-0 | 35% | 100% | ||||
 Alabama | 1-0 | 31% | 100% | ||||
 Oklahoma | 1-0 | 31% | 100% | ||||
 BYU | 0-0 | 27% | 100% | ||||
 Florida | 1-0 | 25% | 100% | ||||
 Tennessee | 0-0 | 22% | 100% | ||||
 USC | 2-0 | 21% | 100% | ||||
 Virginia | 1-0 | 20% | 100% | ||||
 Iowa | 1-0 | 19% | 100% | ||||
 SMU | 1-0 | 16% | 100% | ||||
 Missouri | 0-0 | 16% | 100% | ||||
 South Carolina | 1-0 | 16% | 100% | ||||
 Pittsburgh | 1-0 | 15% | 100% | ||||
 Ole Miss | 1-0 | 15% | 100% | ||||
 Boise State | 0-1 | 14% | 75% | ||||
 Kansas State | 0-0 | 14% | 100% | ||||
 Utah | 0-0 | 14% | 100% | ||||
 Washington | 1-0 | 14% | 100% | ||||
 Arizona | 0-0 | 13% | 100% | ||||
 Memphis | 2-0 | 10% | 97% | ||||
 UCLA | 1-0 | 10% | 100% | ||||
 Louisville | 0-1 | 9.3% | 99% | ||||
 New Mexico | 1-0 | 9.1% | 97% | ||||
 James Madison | 1-0 | 8.6% | 81% | ||||
 Michigan | 1-0 | 8.5% | — | ||||
 Vanderbilt | 0-0 | 7.8% | — | ||||
 Virginia Tech | 0-0 | 7.8% | 100% | ||||
 Houston | 1-0 | 6.5% | 100% | ||||
 UNLV | 1-1 | 6.1% | 54% | ||||
 Navy | 0-0 | 5.7% | 99% | ||||
 San Diego State | 0-0 | 5.7% | 97% | ||||
 Nebraska | 1-0 | 5.3% | — | ||||
 Auburn | 1-0 | 4.9% | — | ||||
 Air Force | 0-0 | 4.7% | 94% | ||||
 Tulsa | 1-0 | 4.3% | 93% | ||||
 Illinois | 1-0 | 4.2% | — | ||||
 Cincinnati | 1-0 | 4.2% | 100% | ||||
 Army | 0-0 | 4.0% | 97% | ||||
 UTSA | 0-0 | 4.0% | 99% | ||||
 Minnesota | 0-0 | 4.0% | — | ||||
 Arizona State | 0-0 | 3.9% | — | ||||
 Duke | 1-0 | 3.9% | 100% | ||||
 South Florida | 1-0 | 3.8% | 90% | ||||
 TCU | 0-1 | 3.7% | 100% | ||||
 Kansas | 0-0 | 3.6% | 100% | ||||
 North Carolina | 1-0 | 3.5% | — | ||||
 Maryland | 0-0 | 3.2% | — | ||||
 Clemson | 0-1 | 3.1% | 100% | ||||
 Western Michigan | 0-1 | 2.8% | 36% | ||||
 Nevada | 1-0 | 2.8% | 92% | ||||
 UCF | 0-0 | 2.8% | 100% | ||||
 Baylor | 0-1 | 2.4% | 100% | ||||
 Northwestern | 0-0 | 2.4% | — | ||||
 Colorado | 1-0 | 2.2% | — | ||||
 Arkansas | 0-0 | 2.2% | — | ||||
 Kentucky | 0-0 | 2.1% | — | ||||
 Mississippi State | 1-0 | 2.1% | — | ||||
 Old Dominion | 0-0 | 2.0% | 80% | ||||
 Iowa State | 0-0 | 1.7% | — | ||||
 Wake Forest | 1-0 | 1.4% | — | ||||
 Oklahoma State | 0-1 | 1.2% | — | ||||
 Liberty | 0-1 | 1.2% | 13% | ||||
 Georgia Tech | 0-1 | 1.2% | — | ||||
 Florida State | 1-1 | 1.0% | — | ||||
 Louisiana | 0-0 | 1.0% | 72% | ||||
 Michigan State | 1-0 | 0.8% | — | ||||
 East Carolina | 0-1 | 0.7% | 48% | ||||
 NC State | 0-1 | 0.7% | 79% | ||||
 Georgia Southern | 0-0 | 0.7% | 85% | ||||
 Syracuse | 0-0 | 0.7% | — | ||||
 Buffalo | 0-0 | 0.7% | — | ||||
 Temple | 0-0 | 0.6% | — | ||||
 Washington State | 0-1 | 0.6% | 71% | ||||
 Toledo | 0-1 | 0.6% | 22% | ||||
 Tulane | 0-1 | 0.6% | 61% | ||||
 Colorado State | 1-0 | 0.6% | — | ||||
 Wisconsin | 0-1 | 0.5% | — | ||||
 App State | 0-0 | 0.5% | 69% | ||||
 Louisiana Tech | 0-0 | 0.5% | — | ||||
 Kennesaw State | 0-0 | 0.5% | 65% | ||||
 West Virginia | 1-0 | 0.5% | — | ||||
 Fresno State | 0-1 | 0.4% | 50% | ||||
 Delaware | 0-0 | 0.4% | — | ||||
 California | 0-1 | 0.3% | — | ||||
 Oregon State | 0-1 | 0.3% | 69% | ||||
 Purdue | 0-0 | 0.3% | — | ||||
 Troy | 1-0 | 0.3% | — | ||||
 Texas State | 0-1 | 0.3% | 53% | ||||
 South Alabama | 0-0 | 0.3% | — | ||||
 Ohio | 0-1 | 0.2% | 10% | ||||
 Marshall | 0-1 | 0.2% | 16% | ||||
 Utah State | 0-0 | 0.2% | — | ||||
 Florida Atlantic | 0-1 | 0.2% | 43% | ||||
 Miami (OH) | 0-1 | 0.2% | 17% | ||||
 San José State | 1-1 | 0.1% | — | ||||
 Florida International | 0-1 | 0.1% | 12% | ||||
 North Texas | 0-1 | 0.1% | — | ||||
 Coastal Carolina | 0-1 | 0.1% | 20% | ||||
 Arkansas State | 0-1 | 0.1% | 16% | ||||
 Massachusetts | 1-0 | 0.1% | — | ||||
 Boston College | 0-1 | 0.1% | — | ||||
 Rice | 0-0 | 0.1% | — | ||||
 Hawai'i | 0-2 | 0.1% | 5.8% | ||||
 New Mexico State | 0-1 | 0.1% | 15% | ||||
 Bowling Green | 0-0 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Stanford | 1-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Wyoming | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Southern Miss | 0-0 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 UConn | 0-0 | 0.0% | 15% | ||||
 Jacksonville State | 0-1 | 0.0% | 6.6% | ||||
 UAB | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Middle Tennessee | 0-0 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Rutgers | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Central Michigan | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Ball State | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Georgia State | 0-0 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Missouri State | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Northern Illinois | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 UTEP | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Akron | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Charlotte | 0-0 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Eastern Michigan | 1-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Kent State | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 North Dakota State | 1-0 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Sacramento State | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Sam Houston | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 UL Monroe | 0-1 | 0.0% | — | ||||
 Western Kentucky | 0-1 | 0.0% | — |
Open a team for its full loss curve, its odds week by week, and what the model made of its last game. A wider screen adds the projected record and the columns for conference title and first-round bye.
Key games
The turning points of North Texas’s season, measured as the gap between the two outcomes: how much playoff probability moves depending on who wins. A game North Texas is not playing in can still move them, and later in the year those are the ones nobody works out for themselves.
North Texas’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk8at Navy0.4
- wk11at UTSA0.4
- wk5at Tulsa0.4
- wk2vs UNLV0.4
- wk12at Tulane0.3
- wk3at Texas State0.3
Who to root for
Games North Texas is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk7North Dakota State over Nevada0.2
- wk12Charlotte over Tulsa0.1
- wk2Stony Brook over Ball State0.1
- wk2Texas Tech over Oregon State0.1
- wk5Kent State over Ohio0.1
- wk13Syracuse over Notre Dame0.1
The biggest swings in the sport
One row per game, naming the team it moves most among the teams not playing in it. This is the list that says which weekend to clear, whoever you support.
- wk9Mississippi State at Texasmoves LSU4.4
- wk7Florida State at Miamimoves SMU4.2
- wk9Miami at North Carolinamoves SMU4.2
- wk3New Mexico at Oklahomamoves Boise State4.0
- wk5Miami at Clemsonmoves SMU4.0
- wk6Maryland at Ohio Statemoves Texas4.0
Win out and it still might not be enough
For a power-conference team, running the table settles it: 44 of the 45 make the bracket in every simulated season they finish unbeaten. Outside those leagues it settles nothing, because the Group of 6 gets one bid and winning out only enters you into the argument for it.
- Liberty0-1 · 1% now13%
- Western Michigan0-1 · 3% now36%
- UNLV1-1 · 6% now54%
- Boise State0-1 · 14% now75%
- Old Dominion0-0 · 2% now80%
- James Madison1-0 · 9% now81%
- South Florida1-0 · 4% now90%
- Nevada1-0 · 3% now92%
- Tulsa1-0 · 4% now93%
- Air Force0-0 · 5% now94%
The last column is how often they make it in the simulated seasons where they lose no more games.
The Group of 6 race
One bid, to the highest-ranked champion outside the four power leagues — so these teams are competing against each other on a different rule, not against the SEC’s eighth best. All 62 with a path.
Who moved
Change in playoff probability from Preseason to Week 1, in percentage points.
The second line is how each team did against the margin the ratings implied, which is what the model actually updates on. Winning is not the same as gaining: 18 of the 44 teams that came through week 1 unbeaten came out with worse odds than they went in with.
Gained the most
- Won 51-10 over Clemsonexp +10+31.3
- Won 59-7 over Texas Stateexp +27+24.7
- Won 45-6 over Stanfordexp +22+17.1
- Won 45-0 over Marshallexp +27+18.2
- Won 66-21 over Florida Atlanticexp +24+21.3
- Won 34-8 over NC Stateexp +5+21.2
- Won 59-14 over Miami (OH)exp +13+32.4
- Won 48-10 over East Carolinaexp +22+15.7
Lost the most
- Lost 10-51 to LSUexp −10−31.3
- Won 13-12 over Western Michiganexp +25−24.4
- Won 34-27 over Boise Stateexp +27−19.5
- Lost 10-15 to North Carolinaexp +6−10.9
- 1-1 on the week−15.4
- 1-1 on the week−0.5
- Lost 38-41 to Ole Missexp −5+2.4
- Lost 8-34 to Virginiaexp −5−21.2
Since preseason
The eight best odds on the board, week by week, on a shared 0–100% scale. Earlier weeks are replayed with the current model rather than recorded at the time, so they say what today’s simulation makes of that week.
What a loss costs
The number every other tracker assumes is the same for everyone. It is not: a third loss leaves one of these teams comfortably in and another effectively out, and the difference is who they had the chance to beat. Affords is the most losses a team can take and still be better than even.
| Team | 0L | 1L | 2L | 3L | 4L | Affords |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 100 | 100 | 79 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Ohio State | 100 | 100 | 99 | 49 | 1 | 2 |
| Miami | 100 | 100 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 2 |
| Texas Tech | 100 | 99 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| LSU | 100 | 100 | 97 | 35 | 0 | 2 |
| Oregon | 100 | 100 | 89 | 15 | 0 | 2 |
| Texas | 100 | 100 | 100 | 87 | 8 | 3 |
| Georgia | 100 | 100 | 96 | 29 | 0 | 2 |
| Indiana | 100 | 100 | 68 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Penn State | 100 | 99 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Texas A&M | 100 | 100 | 99 | 53 | 1 | 3 |
| Alabama | 100 | 100 | 96 | 30 | 0 | 2 |
| Oklahoma | 100 | 100 | 100 | 67 | 3 | 3 |
| BYU | 100 | 100 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| Florida | 100 | 100 | 97 | 31 | 0 | 2 |
| Tennessee | 100 | 100 | 97 | 32 | 0 | 2 |
What the simulation also says
- 1.78 undefeated teams in an average simulated season.
- The 2026 rule change alters the field in 11.4% of seasons compared with the 2025 rules.
The committee is fitted, not consulted: it recovers about eleven of the real committee’s top twelve on a walk-forward test. How this is built →