Boston College vs. Stanford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsSTAN
- Q4 11:26STANEmmet Kenney 26 Yd Field Goal 20–30
- Q3 1:35STANMicah Ford 5 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)20–27
- Q2 0:00BCLuca Lombardo 31 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q2 1:29STANCollin Wright 19 Yd Interception Return (Emmet Kenney Kick)17–20
- Q2 1:47STANSam Roush 69 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Emmet Kenney Kick)17–13
- Q2 8:04BCJordan McDonald 2 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)17–6
- Q2 10:43BCTurbo Richard 49 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)10–6
- Q2 13:38BCLuca Lombardo 51 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 1:04STANEmmet Kenney 35 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 7:10STANEmmet Kenney 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDylan Lonergan 30/44, 333 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTurbo Richard 14 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecReed Harris 7 REC, 141 YDS
- PassBen Gulbranson 13/22, 186 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMicah Ford 17 CAR, 157 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSam Roush 3 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSTAN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:29STAN +29%
PENALTY STAN Illegal Substitution (Brown,Ziron) 5 yards from BC03 to BC08. NO PLAY
- Q2 8:04BC +15%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
- Q2 1:29STAN +14%
Dylan Lonergan pass intercepted Collin Wright return for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
- Q1 1:04STAN +11%
Emmet Kenney 35 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 10:43BC +8%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 49 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
- Q2 13:38BC +6%
Luca Lombardo 51 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Stanford?
Boston College 20, Stanford 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BC | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 389 | Total yards | 399 |
| 333 | Passing yards | 186 |
| 56 | Rushing yards | 213 |
| 19 | First downs | 15 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 30/44 | Comp/Att | 13/22 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-30 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 28:16 | Possession | 31:44 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:10 STAN field goal on 4th & 4 at BC 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:26STANEmmet Kenney 26 Yd Field Goal 20–30
- Q3 1:35STANMicah Ford 5 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)20–27
- Q2 0:00BCLuca Lombardo 31 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q2 1:29STANCollin Wright 19 Yd Interception Return (Emmet Kenney Kick)17–20
- Q2 1:47STANSam Roush 69 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Emmet Kenney Kick)17–13
- Q2 8:04BCJordan McDonald 2 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)17–6
- Q2 10:43BCTurbo Richard 49 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)10–6
- Q2 13:38BCLuca Lombardo 51 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 1:04STANEmmet Kenney 35 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 7:10STANEmmet Kenney 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (STAN Elo 1260, BC Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects STAN +7.4 (32% to win) — 6.6 points clear of STAN's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #20 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| BC | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.0 (#95) | CORE overall | -12.6 (#102) |
| -1 / +9 | offense / defense | -11 / +1 |
| 1.81 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →