LSU vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsTA&M
- Q4 6:21LSUJohn Emery Jr. 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)23–38
- Q4 7:46TA&MDevon Achane 10 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)17–38
- Q4 14:54TA&MMoose Muhammad III 21 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Randy Bond Kick)17–31
- Q3 7:03TA&MDemani Richardson 27 Yd Fumble Return (Randy Bond Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:40LSUJohn Emery Jr. 19 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)17–17
- Q2 1:10TA&MDonovan Green 3 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Randy Bond Kick)10–17
- Q2 5:38LSUDamian Ramos 34 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 9:23TA&MRandy Bond 25 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 14:00LSUJohn Emery Jr. 4 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:54TA&MDevon Achane 10 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TA&M did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassJayden Daniels 21/35, 189 YDS
- RushJayden Daniels 12 CAR, 84 YDS
- RecMalik Nabers 7 REC, 69 YDS
- PassConner Weigman 12/18, 155 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDe'Von Achane 38 CAR, 215 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMoose Muhammad III 5 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTA&M up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:40LSU +26%
John Emery Jr. run for 19 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q2 1:10TA&M +24%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Donovan Green for 3 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)
- Q3 7:03TA&M +21%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 8 yards Jayden Daniels fumbled, forced by Edgerrin Cooper, recovered by TexAM Demani Richardson, return for 27 yds, (Randy Bond KICK)
- Q2 14:00LSU +20%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q1 4:54TA&M +19%
Devon Achane run for 10 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)
- Q4 14:54TA&M +16%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 21 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Texas A&M?
LSU 23, Texas A&M 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LSU | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 429 |
| 197 | Passing yards | 155 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 274 |
| 25 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 10-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 22/36 | Comp/Att | 12/18 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-42 | Penalties | 4-47 |
| 28:19 | Possession | 31:41 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:38 LSU field goal on 4th & 2 at TA&M 16. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.31 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:21LSUJohn Emery Jr. 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)23–38
- Q4 7:46TA&MDevon Achane 10 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)17–38
- Q4 14:54TA&MMoose Muhammad III 21 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Randy Bond Kick)17–31
- Q3 7:03TA&MDemani Richardson 27 Yd Fumble Return (Randy Bond Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:40LSUJohn Emery Jr. 19 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)17–17
- Q2 1:10TA&MDonovan Green 3 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Randy Bond Kick)10–17
- Q2 5:38LSUDamian Ramos 34 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 9:23TA&MRandy Bond 25 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 14:00LSUJohn Emery Jr. 4 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:54TA&MDevon Achane 10 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TA&M Elo 1579, LSU Elo 1779 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TA&M +5.6 (36% to win) — 4.4 points clear of TA&M's market line of +10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#44 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #59 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #3 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →LSU leads 36–24–3 · Texas A&M has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| LSU | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| +26.9 (#5) | CORE overall | +6.3 (#41) |
| +17 / -10 | offense / defense | +0 / -6 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 1.80 |
| 2.01 | allowed / drive | 1.90 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +8 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →