UAB vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsGASO
- Q4 1:36GASOMichael Lantz 38 Yd Field Goal 35–49
- Q4 5:45UABJacob Zeno 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–46
- Q4 7:26GASOMichael Lantz 37 Yd Field Goal 29–46
- Q4 10:31GASOJalen White 6 Yd Run (Davis Brin Pass to Jjay Mcafee for Two-Point Conversion)29–43
- Q3 5:19UABIverson Hooks 7 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)29–35
- Q3 9:49GASOKhaleb Hood 1 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)22–35
- Q2 0:39GASOOJ Arnold 39 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)22–28
- Q2 1:44UABIsaiah Jacobs 5 Yd Run (Harrison Barker Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–21
- Q2 5:50UABBryce Damous 5 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)14–21
- Q2 10:10GASODerwin Burgess Jr. 26 Yd pass from OJ Arnold (Michael Lantz Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:15UABJermaine Brown Jr. 19 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:56GASODavis Brin 4 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:56GASOJalen White 5 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJacob Zeno 33/43, 385 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushIsaiah Jacobs 8 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTejhaun Palmer 6 REC, 102 YDS
- PassDavis Brin 38/47, 318 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushOJ Arnold 5 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDerwin Burgess Jr. 8 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,659 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:44UAB +27%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 5 yds for a TD (H. Barker Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q2 0:39GASO +23%
OJ Arnold run for 39 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
- Q3 5:19UAB +20%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
- Q1 12:56GASO +17%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jalen White for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
- Q3 9:49GASO +17%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
- Q2 5:50UAB +17%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Bryce Damous for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Georgia Southern?
UAB 35, Georgia Southern 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UAB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UAB | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 477 | Total yards | 462 |
| 385 | Passing yards | 344 |
| 92 | Rushing yards | 118 |
| 23 | First downs | 26 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 10-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 33/43 | Comp/Att | 39/48 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 27:20 | Possession | 32:40 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:36GASOMichael Lantz 38 Yd Field Goal 35–49
- Q4 5:45UABJacob Zeno 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–46
- Q4 7:26GASOMichael Lantz 37 Yd Field Goal 29–46
- Q4 10:31GASOJalen White 6 Yd Run (Davis Brin Pass to Jjay Mcafee for Two-Point Conversion)29–43
- Q3 5:19UABIverson Hooks 7 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)29–35
- Q3 9:49GASOKhaleb Hood 1 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)22–35
- Q2 0:39GASOOJ Arnold 39 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)22–28
- Q2 1:44UABIsaiah Jacobs 5 Yd Run (Harrison Barker Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–21
- Q2 5:50UABBryce Damous 5 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Matt Quinn Kick)14–21
- Q2 10:10GASODerwin Burgess Jr. 26 Yd pass from OJ Arnold (Michael Lantz Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:15UABJermaine Brown Jr. 19 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:56GASODavis Brin 4 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:56GASOJalen White 5 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1418, UAB Elo 1510 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO +1.3 (48% to win) — 8.3 points clear of UAB's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UAB | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.4 (#86) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#97) |
| +6 / +11 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 3.34 | allowed / drive | 2.45 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →