Central Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Central Arkansas

0013

Oklahoma State

▸0027

Final

Boone Pickens Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
CENT	0	0	7	6	13
OKST	7	6	0	14	27

CENTTeam statsOKST

391Total yards453

268Pass304

123Rush149

19First downs24

5-133rd down6-15

1Turnovers1

27:30Possession32:30

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:28CENTChristian Richmond 2 Yd pass from Will McElvain (Jake Gaster PAT blocked)13–27
• Q4 5:54OKSTOllie Gordon II 2 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)7–27
• Q4 10:44OKSTElijah Collins 17 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)7–20
• Q3 4:37CENTKylin James 1 Yd pass from Will McElvain (Jake Gaster Kick)7–13
• Q2 0:00OKSTAlex Hale 45 Yd Field Goal 0–13
• Q2 5:34OKSTAlex Hale 36 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 2:58OKSTBrennan Presley 11 Yd pass from Garret Rangel (Alex Hale Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

OKST −26

Against the number

CENT covered

line OKST −26

What the numbers say

• CENT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OKST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

OKST 100%50%CENT 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

OKST (top)CENT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: OKST 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

OKST −26

Closing total

59.5

Model line

—

Actual result

CENT 13 – 27 OKST

Leaders

Central Arkansas

• PassWill McElvain 24/37, 268 YDS, 2 TD
• RushShunDerrick Powell 12 CAR, 71 YDS
• RecJarrod Barnes 4 REC, 94 YDS

Oklahoma State

• PassGarret Rangel 10/15, 118 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushOllie Gordon II 7 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDe'Zhaun Stribling 4 REC, 73 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

13.3sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

149

Points / snap

0.27

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

OKST up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,659 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

77%

OKST went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WGeorgia Southern vs UAB49-35WMissouri vs Middle Tennessee23-19WUC Davis vs Southern Utah23-21WTroy vs Western Kentucky27-24WSouth Florida vs Rice42-31

Fourth downs

17 calls

OKST gave up 2.3 points to the model on fourth down.CENT 8/8 · OKST 4/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Central Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State?

Central Arkansas 13, Oklahoma State 27.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (OKST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

CENT

OKST

46%

Success rate

43%

0.43

EPA / pass

0.19

0.10

EPA / rush

0.18

46%

Early-down success

43%

46%

Pass success

37%

48%

Rush success

52%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

9%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

66%

Pass rate

62%

8.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.1

CENT

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

OKST

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

82 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

CENT		OKST
391	Total yards	453
268	Passing yards	304
123	Rushing yards	149
19	First downs	24
5-13	3rd down	6-15
0-0	4th down	1-2
24/37	Comp/Att	30/48
7.2	Yards per pass	6.3
4.4	Yards per rush	4.8
1	Turnovers	1
9-63	Penalties	5-41
27:30	Possession	32:30

Fourth downs

17 calls

CENT

8/8 with the model

nothing given up

OKST

4/9 with the model

−2.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 8:16 OKST punt on 4th & 4 at CENT 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

CENT 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →OKST 5/13 scoring drives

OKSTPUNT10 pl, 36 yds· own 20Q0

OKSTUncateg3 pl, 23 yds· own 32Q0

OKSTINT11 pl, 50 yds· own 20Q1

CENTMISS11 pl, 59 yds· own 31Q1

OKSTTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

CENTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 13Q1

OKSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 38Q1

CENTPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 20Q1

OKSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 22Q2

CENTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 15Q2

OKSTFG11 pl, 31 yds· opp 40Q2

CENTUncateg6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q2

CENTFUM3 pl, 38 yds· own 15Q2

OKSTFG4 pl, 0 yds· opp 28Q2

CENTMISS9 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q3

OKSTPUNT6 pl, 30 yds· own 28Q3

CENTTD8 pl, 95 yds· own 5Q3

OKSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q3

CENTPUNT7 pl, 10 yds· own 33Q3

OKSTTD9 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q4

CENTPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 12Q4

OKSTTD6 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q4

CENTTD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4

OKSTEND6 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:28CENTChristian Richmond 2 Yd pass from Will McElvain (Jake Gaster PAT blocked)13–27
• Q4 5:54OKSTOllie Gordon II 2 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)7–27
• Q4 10:44OKSTElijah Collins 17 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)7–20
• Q3 4:37CENTKylin James 1 Yd pass from Will McElvain (Jake Gaster Kick)7–13
• Q2 0:00OKSTAlex Hale 45 Yd Field Goal 0–13
• Q2 5:34OKSTAlex Hale 36 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 2:58OKSTBrennan Presley 11 Yd pass from Garret Rangel (Alex Hale Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →