Southern Utah vs. UC Davis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Southern Utah0-2
UC Davis0-1
▸Final
Aggie Stadium
SOUTTeam statsUC D
381Total yards349
324Pass256
57Rush93
18First downs19
7-163rd down7-17
1Turnovers0
28:15Possession31:45
- Q4 0:45SOUTZack Mitchell 13 Yd pass from Justin Miller (Tyler Graham Kick)21–23
- Q4 2:27UC DHunter Ridley 24 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q4 10:49SOUTIsaiah Wooden 66 Yd pass from Justin Miller (Tyler Graham Kick)13–20
- Q4 11:37UC DLan Larison 73 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)7–20
- Q3 1:00SOUTIsaiah Wooden 3 Yd pass from Justin Miller (Tyler Graham Kick)7–13
- Q3 6:07UC DJosh Gale 14 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–13
- Q1 7:02UC DHunter Ridley 22 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 14:00UC DHunter Ridley 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
UC D (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UC D 100%
Southern Utah
- PassJustin Miller 20/42, 324 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTarghee Lambson 12 CAR, 22 YDS
- RecIsaiah Wooden 7 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD
UC Davis
- PassMiles Hastings 21/37, 256 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLan Larison 17 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecLan Larison 8 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
24.5sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
145
Points / snap
0.30
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUC D up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,659 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
UC D went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Utah vs. UC Davis?
Southern Utah 21, UC Davis 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UC D) was correct.
SOUT
UC D
34%
Success rate
29%
0.46
EPA / pass
0.34
-0.26
EPA / rush
-0.40
29%
Early-down success
23%
43%
Pass success
37%
19%
Rush success
18%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
10%
23%
Stuffed rush rate
41%
62%
Pass rate
56%
7.4
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.8
SOUT
7.4 yards to go on 3rd down
68 scrimmage snaps
UC D
6.8 yards to go on 3rd down
77 scrimmage snaps
| SOUT | UC D | |
|---|---|---|
| 381 | Total yards | 349 |
| 324 | Passing yards | 256 |
| 57 | Rushing yards | 93 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/42 | Comp/Att | 21/38 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-57 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 28:15 | Possession | 31:45 |
SOUT
6/8 with the model
−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob
UC D
7/9 with the model
−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 8:58 UC D punt on 4th & 5 at SOUT 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSOUT 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →UC D 5/13 scoring drives
SOUTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
UC DFG4 pl, -4 yds· opp 22Q1
SOUTPUNT5 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q1
UC DFG9 pl, 30 yds· opp 35Q1
SOUTPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q1
UC DPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q1
SOUTPUNT6 pl, 24 yds· own 37Q1
UC DPUNT12 pl, 48 yds· own 15Q2
SOUTPUNT7 pl, 32 yds· own 2Q2
UC DPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q2
SOUTPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 23Q2
UC DEND2 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2
UC DDOWNS12 pl, 74 yds· own 25Q3
SOUTPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 1Q3
UC DTD7 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3
SOUTTD10 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q3
UC DPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3
SOUTPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 26Q4
UC DTD3 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
SOUTTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
UC DPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 20Q4
SOUTPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 20Q4
UC DFG8 pl, 58 yds· own 35Q4
SOUTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
UC DEND2 pl, -2 yds· own 49Q4
- Q4 0:45SOUTZack Mitchell 13 Yd pass from Justin Miller (Tyler Graham Kick)21–23
- Q4 2:27UC DHunter Ridley 24 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q4 10:49SOUTIsaiah Wooden 66 Yd pass from Justin Miller (Tyler Graham Kick)13–20
- Q4 11:37UC DLan Larison 73 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)7–20
- Q3 1:00SOUTIsaiah Wooden 3 Yd pass from Justin Miller (Tyler Graham Kick)7–13
- Q3 6:07UC DJosh Gale 14 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–13
- Q1 7:02UC DHunter Ridley 22 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 14:00UC DHunter Ridley 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →