Arkansas State vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsTROY
- Q4 3:51ARSTDominic Zvada 45 Yd Field Goal 3–37
- Q4 8:13TROYKimani Vidal 69 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–37
- Q4 12:46TROYChris Lewis 64 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–30
- Q3 7:59TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 39 Yd Field Goal 0–23
- Q2 0:00TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 28 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 3:47TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 27 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 12:11TROYKimani Vidal 1 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:50TROYKimani Vidal 1 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJaylen Raynor 15/27, 156 YDS
- RushZak Wallace 9 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecJeff Foreman 4 REC, 76 YDS
- PassGunnar Watson 12/21, 236 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKimani Vidal 28 CAR, 245 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDeshon Stoudemire 4 REC, 98 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 834 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:50TROY +6%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Troy?
Arkansas State 3, Troy 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
| ARST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 203 | Total yards | 587 |
| 156 | Passing yards | 236 |
| 47 | Rushing yards | 351 |
| 10 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/27 | Comp/Att | 12/21 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 11.2 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-22 | Penalties | 8-75 |
| 25:56 | Possession | 34:04 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:13 ARST punt on 4th & 1 at ARST 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:51ARSTDominic Zvada 45 Yd Field Goal 3–37
- Q4 8:13TROYKimani Vidal 69 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–37
- Q4 12:46TROYChris Lewis 64 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–30
- Q3 7:59TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 39 Yd Field Goal 0–23
- Q2 0:00TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 28 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 3:47TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 27 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 12:11TROYKimani Vidal 1 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:50TROYKimani Vidal 1 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1563, ARST Elo 1118 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -20.2 (90% to win) — 4.7 points clear of TROY's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArkansas State leads 11–9 · Arkansas State has won 2 straight · 55% have been one-possession games
| ARST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.4 (#100) | CORE overall | +10.8 (#31) |
| -3 / +8 | offense / defense | -0 / -11 |
| 1.93 | points / drive | 2.40 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 1.38 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →