Pennsylvania vs. Bucknell: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Pennsylvania1-0

▸

Bucknell0-1

Final

Christy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
PENN	7	3	20	7	37
BUCK	0	0	7	14	21

PENNTeam statsBUCK

515Total yards238

354Pass230

161Rush8

28First downs13

9-173rd down3-12

2Turnovers0

41:29Possession18:31

Q4 0:56BUCKJosh Gary 13 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker (Matt Schearer Kick)37–21
Q4 2:57PENNJonathan Mulatu 1 Yd Run (Graham Gotlieb Kick)37–14
Q4 13:27BUCKEric Weatherly 31 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker (Matt Schearer Kick)30–14
Q3 1:12PENNJared Richardson 40 Yd pass from Aidan Sayin (Graham Gotlieb Kick)30–7
Q3 5:13PENNJared Richardson 7 Yd pass from Aidan Sayin (Graham Gotlieb PAT failed)23–7
Q3 5:54BUCKEric Weatherly 40 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker (Matt Schearer Kick)17–7
Q3 10:24PENNLiam O'Brien 2 Yd Run (Graham Gotlieb Kick)17–0
Q2 0:24PENNGraham Gotlieb 18 Yd Field Goal 10–0
Q1 6:54PENNAlex Haight 8 Yd pass from Aidan Sayin (Graham Gotlieb Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

PENN −12

Against the number

PENN covered

line PENN −12

What the numbers say

BUCK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PENN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.4

Kickoff153 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

BUCK (top)PENN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUCK 0%

Closing line

PENN −12

Closing total

35.5

Model line

—

Actual result

PENN 37 – 21 BUCK

Pennsylvania

PassAidan Sayin 35/49, 354 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
RushJonathan Mulatu 11 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
RecJared Richardson 12 REC, 139 YDS, 2 TD

Bucknell

PassRalph Rucker IV 18/34, 230 YDS, 3 TD
RushRushawn Baker 9 CAR, 16 YDS
RecEric Weatherly 6 REC, 95 YDS, 2 TD

23.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

138

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

PENN up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 835 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

PENN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSouth Alabama vs Oklahoma State33-7 WVillanova vs North Carolina A&T37-14 WTroy vs Arkansas State37-3 WSamford vs The Citadel37-7 WOregon vs California63-19

FAQ

What was the final score of Pennsylvania vs. Bucknell?

Pennsylvania 37, Bucknell 21.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked BUCK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

PENN

BUCK

47%

Success rate

32%

0.28

EPA / pass

0.22

EPA / rush

-0.08

44%

Early-down success

31%

45%

Pass success

35%

50%

Rush success

23%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

Stuffed rush rate

31%

58%

Pass rate

76%

5.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.8

PENN

5.4 yards to go on 3rd down

85 scrimmage snaps

BUCK

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

53 scrimmage snaps

PENN		BUCK
515	Total yards	238
354	Passing yards	230
161	Rushing yards	8
28	First downs	13
9-17	3rd down	3-12
2-2	4th down	1-1
35/49	Comp/Att	18/34
7.2	Yards per pass	6.8
4.4	Yards per rush	0.5
2	Turnovers	0
2-20	Penalties	5-39
41:29	Possession	18:31

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

PENNTeam statsBUCK

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Pennsylvania vs. Bucknell?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Pennsylvania vs. Bucknell: Final Score & Recap

PENNTeam statsBUCK

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of Pennsylvania vs. Bucknell?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?