The Citadel vs. Samford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
The Citadel0-1
Samford0-1
▸Final
Seibert StadiumConference game
THE Team statsSAMF
308Total yards504
122Pass353
186Rush151
16First downs25
4-153rd down5-11
2Turnovers0
34:46Possession25:14
- Q4 8:21SAMFJay Stanton 37 Yd Run (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)7–37
- Q3 3:55THE Jay Graves-Billips 40 Yd pass from Graeson Underwood (Colby Kintner Kick)7–30
- Q2 0:00SAMFWilson Beaverstock 37 Yd Field Goal 0–30
- Q2 6:17SAMFE. Jai Mason 9 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)0–27
- Q2 10:54SAMFIaan Cousin 43 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock PAT blocked)0–20
- Q1 2:06SAMFJay Stanton 6 Yd Run (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:46SAMFJay Stanton 7 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
SAMF −24
Against the number
SAMF covered
line SAMF −24
What the numbers say
- SAMF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and THE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 5.3
Kickoff151 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
SAMF (top)THE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SAMF 100%
Closing line
SAMF −24
Closing total
51.5
Model line
—
Actual result
THE 7 – 37 SAMF
The Citadel
- PassGraeson Underwood 11/22, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJohnny Crawford III 12 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecJavonte Graves-Billips 2 REC, 42 YDS, 1 TD
Samford
- PassMichael Hiers 26/36, 353 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJay Stanton 13 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChandler Smith 7 REC, 167 YDS
26.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
134
Points / snap
0.33
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSAMF up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 834 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
SAMF went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of The Citadel vs. Samford?
The Citadel 7, Samford 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SAMF) was correct.
THE
SAMF
39%
Success rate
49%
-0.09
EPA / pass
0.63
-0.04
EPA / rush
0.09
41%
Early-down success
50%
44%
Pass success
61%
36%
Rush success
36%
8%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
24%
Stuffed rush rate
16%
35%
Pass rate
55%
5.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
9.0
THE
5.3 yards to go on 3rd down
65 scrimmage snaps
SAMF
9.0 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
| THE | SAMF | |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Total yards | 504 |
| 122 | Passing yards | 353 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 151 |
| 16 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 2-6 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 11/22 | Comp/Att | 26/36 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 34:46 | Possession | 25:14 |
THE
4/9 with the model
−2.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
SAMF
4/5 with the model
−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 12:49 THE punt on 4th & 2 at THE 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishTHE 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →SAMF 6/12 scoring drives
THE DOWNS11 pl, 37 yds· opp 0Q1
SAMFTD8 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1
THE PUNT3 pl, 8 yds· opp 0Q1
SAMFPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 20Q1
SAMFTD4 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q1
THE PUNT6 pl, 20 yds· opp 0Q1
SAMFTD7 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q2
THE PUNT5 pl, 17 yds· opp 0Q2
SAMFTD6 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q2
THE PUNT3 pl, 8 yds· opp 0Q2
SAMFFG14 pl, 59 yds· own 22Q2
SAMFMISS9 pl, 56 yds· own 0Q3
THE PUNT6 pl, 32 yds· own 20Q3
SAMFPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 20Q3
THE TD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
SAMFPUNT4 pl, 30 yds· own 0Q3
THE DOWNS11 pl, 53 yds· own 21Q3
SAMFTD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q4
THE DOWNS10 pl, 59 yds· opp 0Q4
SAMFPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 16Q4
THE DOWNS4 pl, 0 yds· own 31Q4
SAMFEND1 pl, -3 yds· opp 31Q4
- Q4 8:21SAMFJay Stanton 37 Yd Run (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)7–37
- Q3 3:55THE Jay Graves-Billips 40 Yd pass from Graeson Underwood (Colby Kintner Kick)7–30
- Q2 0:00SAMFWilson Beaverstock 37 Yd Field Goal 0–30
- Q2 6:17SAMFE. Jai Mason 9 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)0–27
- Q2 10:54SAMFIaan Cousin 43 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock PAT blocked)0–20
- Q1 2:06SAMFJay Stanton 6 Yd Run (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:46SAMFJay Stanton 7 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →